Regular Season - 17 · 24 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Middlesbrough vs Swansea Championship prediction

Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough

Our model says: Middlesbrough 1–0 Swansea

The model makes it 49% Middlesbrough, 27% draw, 24% Swansea — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Middlesbrough 1.67, Swansea 1.01.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Middlesbrough: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 10 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Middlesbrough's rating is built from 64 Championship matches and Swansea's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.

Key facts

Middlesbrough are 2nd on 29 points from 15 games; Swansea are 6th on 26 points from 15 games — Championship.
Middlesbrough have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Watford.
Swansea have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Birmingham.
Last 6 meetings: Middlesbrough 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Swansea 2–2 Middlesbrough.

More Championship predictions

All Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Middlesbrough vs Swansea

52%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Middlesbrough win Draw Swansea win

1–112%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–07%
0–16%
1–26%

Scores read Middlesbrough first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Middlesbrough at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Middlesbrough vs Swansea

Middlesbrough

Championship

D0-0away to Watford7 November 2026
L0-2away to Wrexham4 November 2026
W3-0Charlton31 October 2026
W5-1away to Bolton23 October 2026
D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026

Swansea

Championship

L1-2away to Birmingham7 November 2026
L1-3away to Portsmouth3 November 2026
W4-0Blackburn31 October 2026
L0-5away to QPR24 October 2026
L0-1West Ham17 October 2026

What these results say

Swansea failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Swansea had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	30	19	+11	29
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	22	18	+4	26

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Middlesbrough

Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today

Win 39%

Draw 32%

Defeat 29%

Swansea

Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today

Win 8%

Draw 5%

Defeat 3%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Swansea

6 April 2026Swansea 2–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
9 August 2025Middlesbrough 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
8 March 2025Swansea 1–0 MiddlesbroughChampionship
10 August 2024Middlesbrough 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
6 April 2024Middlesbrough 2–0 SwanseaChampionship
16 December 2023Swansea 1–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship

The full Middlesbrough vs Swansea record →

Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Swansea

Middlesbrough

GoalsAssists

W. Lankshear130

Swansea

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Middlesbrough a 21.2% chance of the title and Swansea 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Middlesbrough Swansea

0.89 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.74

1.14 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.23

1.67 Model expected goals (this match) 1.01

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Middlesbrough against 1.01 for Swansea. Middlesbrough's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.23 for Swansea.

Middlesbrough carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.6 for Swansea. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 49% for Middlesbrough to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Middlesbrough to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Middlesbrough's ratings add 4 points and Swansea's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 49%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage42%+6
Middlesbrough's ratings46%+4
Swansea's ratings49%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

MiddlesbroughModelSwansea

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

75%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

50%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

28%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

52%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

MiddlesbroughSwansea

15Matches15

8W 5D 2LRecord8W 2D 5L

30 2.0 per gameGoals scored22 1.5 per game

19 1.3 per gameGoals conceded18 1.2 per game

4 of 15Clean sheets6 of 15

2 of 15Failed to score4 of 15

–Penalties scored2 of 3

17 1.1 per gameYellow cards23 1.5 per game

0Red cards1

4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-3-3 9×

Middlesbrough at home · Swansea away

7Played8

5W 2D 0LRecord4W 0D 4L

17–9Goals for – against11–15

2 of 7Clean sheets2 of 8

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

MiddlesbroughSwansea

Middlesbrough are 2nd after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 10th so far); Swansea are 6th after 15 (between 1st and 6th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Middlesbrough 15, Swansea 15.

Middlesbrough scored 524767

Swansea conceded 524213

Swansea scored 424623

Middlesbrough conceded 314442

Swansea score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Middlesbrough have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Middlesbrough

at Southampton27 Nov · Championshipwin 27%
vs Derby5 Dec · Championshipwin 61%
at West Ham8 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
at Preston12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%

Swansea

vs Cardiff29 Nov · Championshipwin 47%
at Bristol City5 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
vs Bolton8 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
at Charlton12 Dec · Championshipwin 41%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.