QPR
vs
Lincoln
Championship prediction
Our model says: QPR 1–0 Lincoln
The model makes it 49% QPR, 27% draw, 24% Lincoln — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: QPR 1.63, Lincoln 0.99.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to QPR: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. QPR's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Lincoln's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,247 matches.
Key facts
- QPR are 9th on 17 points from 11 games; Lincoln are 18th on 12 points from 11 games — Championship.
- QPR have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Birmingham.
- Lincoln are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Millwall.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: QPR vs Lincoln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts QPR at 49% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into QPR vs Lincoln
QPR
Championship
- L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026
- W4-1Derby14 October 2026
- D1-1away to West Ham9 October 2026
- D2-2Preston19 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
Lincoln
Championship
- D2-2away to Millwall17 October 2026
- L0-6West Ham14 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sheffield Utd10 October 2026
- L1-2Swansea19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
What these results say
- QPR conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- QPR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lincoln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lincoln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lincoln had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
QPR carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.41 for Lincoln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for QPR and 0.99 for Lincoln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
QPR rate 0.72 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lincoln rate 0.62 and 1.50.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives QPR a 0.3% chance of the title and Lincoln 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives QPR the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for QPR against 0.99 for Lincoln. QPR's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.5 for Lincoln.
How the model reaches 49% for QPR to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for QPR to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, QPR's ratings take away 15 points and Lincoln's ratings add 22 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- QPR's ratings27%−15
- Lincoln's ratings49%+22
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
QPR at home · Lincoln away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
QPRLincoln
QPR are 9th after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Lincoln are 18th after 11 (between 8th and 23rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: QPR 11, Lincoln 11.
QPR score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Lincoln have let in 3 there.
Lincoln score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); QPR have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
QPR
- at Millwall21 Nov · Championshipwin 27%
- at Norwich24 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
Lincoln
- vs Wrexham21 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- at Charlton24 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.