Wrexham
vs
Wolves
Championship prediction
Our model says: Wrexham 2–1 Wolves
The model makes it 40% Wrexham, 27% draw, 33% Wolves — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wrexham 1.55, Wolves 1.38.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Wrexham's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Wolves's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,247 matches.
Key facts
- Wrexham are 14th on 14 points from 11 games; Wolves are 7th on 18 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Wrexham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Preston.
- Wolves have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Portsmouth.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wrexham vs Wolves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wrexham at 40% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wrexham vs Wolves
Wrexham
Championship
- W4-1Preston17 October 2026
- L1-2West Brom13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Derby10 October 2026
- W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
Wolves
Championship
- D1-1Portsmouth20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Burnley16 October 2026
- L1-3Bolton13 October 2026
- L0-1away to Middlesbrough10 October 2026
- W1-0West Brom20 September 2026
What these results say
- Wrexham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wrexham had three goals or more.
- Wolves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wolves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 7 | Wolves | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Wrexham and Wolves
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore51
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López53
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wrexham carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.61 for Wolves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Wrexham and 1.38 for Wolves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wrexham rate 0.78 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wolves rate 0.82 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wolves, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wrexham a 0.3% chance of the title and Wolves 1.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wrexham the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Wrexham against 1.38 for Wolves. Wrexham's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.32 for Wolves.
How the model reaches 40% for Wrexham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wrexham to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Wrexham's ratings take away 15 points and Wolves's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Wrexham's ratings27%−15
- Wolves's ratings40%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wrexham at home · Wolves away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
WrexhamWolves
Wrexham are 14th after 11 Championship matches (between 10th and 16th so far); Wolves are 7th after 11 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Wrexham 11, Wolves 11.
Wrexham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Wolves have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Wrexham
- at Lincoln21 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- at Bristol City24 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
Wolves
- vs Charlton21 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
- vs Derby24 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.