Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

West Ham vs Preston Championship prediction

London Stadium, London

Our model says: West Ham 2–1 Preston

The model makes it 69% West Ham, 18% draw, 13% Preston — fair odds of 1.45, 5.56 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: West Ham 2.87, Preston 1.01.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: West Ham are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 7 November 2026 · updated 10 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. West Ham's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and Preston's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.

Key facts

West Ham are 9th on 23 points from 15 games; Preston are bottom on 8 points from 15 games — Championship.
West Ham are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Blackburn.
Preston have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Southampton.

More Championship predictions

All Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: West Ham vs Preston

60%

Both teams to score

74%

Over 2.5 goals

26%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

West Ham win Draw Preston win

2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–16%
4–16%
4–06%

Scores read West Ham first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

West Ham at 69%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into West Ham vs Preston

West Ham

Championship

L1-2away to Blackburn7 November 2026
D3-3away to Cardiff4 November 2026
L1-3West Brom31 October 2026
L2-3Southampton24 October 2026
W1-0away to Swansea17 October 2026

Preston

Championship

W1-0Southampton7 November 2026
L2-3Sheffield Utd3 November 2026
L0-2away to Stoke City31 October 2026
D1-1West Brom24 October 2026
L1-4away to Wrexham17 October 2026

What these results say

West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
West Ham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
West Ham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Preston failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Preston scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Preston conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	37	23	+14	23
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	13	30	-17	8

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

West Ham

Chance to finish in the top two · 23% today

Win 24%

Draw 18%

Defeat 16%

Preston

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 76% today

Win 66%

Draw 73%

Defeat 77%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Leading scorers: West Ham and Preston

West Ham

GoalsAssists

J. Bowen77
K. Mavropanos50

Preston

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives West Ham a 10.7% chance of the title and Preston 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on West Ham v Preston has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 73% / 16% / 11% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 69% / 18% / 13%: the biggest move is West Ham's chance of winning, down 4 points.

West Ham win69%▼ −4
Draw18%▲ +2
Preston win13%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

West Ham Preston

1.12 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.57

1.47 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.68

2.87 Model expected goals (this match) 1.01

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.87 expected goals for West Ham against 1.01 for Preston. West Ham's attack/defence rating is 1.12/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.68 for Preston.

West Ham carry a model rating of 6.74 against 6.31 for Preston.

How the model reaches 69% for West Ham to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for West Ham to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, West Ham's ratings add 15 points and Preston's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 69%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage42%+6
Both sides at this match's level44%+2
West Ham's ratings59%+15
Preston's ratings69%+10

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

West HamModelPreston

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

90%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

74%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

54%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

70%

7 of 10 games

60%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

West HamPreston

15Matches15

6W 5D 4LRecord2W 2D 11L

37 2.5 per gameGoals scored13 0.9 per game

23 1.5 per gameGoals conceded30 2.0 per game

4 of 15Clean sheets1 of 15

0 of 15Failed to score5 of 15

1 of 3Penalties scored–

32 2.1 per gameYellow cards36 2.4 per game

1Red cards1

4-4-2 7×Usual shape3-4-2-1 3×

West Ham at home · Preston away

7Played7

3W 1D 3LRecord0W 1D 6L

18–11Goals for – against5–17

2 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

West HamPreston

West Ham are 9th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 19th so far); Preston are 24th after 15 (between 21st and 24th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: West Ham 15, Preston 15.

West Ham scored 3365911

Preston conceded 336449

West Ham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Preston have let in 9 there.

Preston scored 422204

West Ham conceded 475322

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

West Ham

at Portsmouth24 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
vs Stoke City28 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
at Sheffield Utd4 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
vs Middlesbrough8 Dec · Championshipwin 44%
vs Bristol City12 Dec · Championshipwin 62%

Preston

at Cardiff24 Nov · Championshipwin 19%
vs Norwich28 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
at Burnley6 Dec · Championshipwin 25%
vs Portsmouth9 Dec · Championshipwin 30%
vs Middlesbrough12 Dec · Championshipwin 22%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.