Cardiff
vs
Preston
Championship prediction
Our model says: Cardiff 2–1 Preston
The model makes it 59% Cardiff, 22% draw, 19% Preston — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Cardiff 2.33, Preston 1.13.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Cardiff: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Cardiff's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and Preston's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Cardiff are 14th on 18 points from 15 games; Preston are bottom on 8 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Cardiff have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-4 win at home to Burnley.
- Preston have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Southampton.
- Last 6 meetings: Preston 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 April 2025, ended Preston 2–2 Cardiff.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cardiff vs Preston
Has the model earned this number?
Cardiff at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cardiff vs Preston
Cardiff
Championship
- W5-4Burnley7 November 2026
- D3-3West Ham4 November 2026
- L0-3away to Wolves31 October 2026
- W1-0Birmingham24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough17 October 2026
Preston
Championship
- W1-0Southampton7 November 2026
- L2-3Sheffield Utd3 November 2026
- L0-2away to Stoke City31 October 2026
- D1-1West Brom24 October 2026
- L1-4away to Wrexham17 October 2026
What these results say
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cardiff had three goals or more.
- Preston failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Preston scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Preston conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Preston
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 76% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Preston
- 8 April 2025Preston 2–2 CardiffChampionship
- 11 December 2024Cardiff 0–2 PrestonChampionship
- 10 February 2024Cardiff 0–2 PrestonChampionship
- 25 November 2023Preston 1–2 CardiffChampionship
- 11 March 2023Preston 2–0 CardiffChampionship
- 27 August 2022Cardiff 0–0 PrestonChampionship
Leading scorers: Cardiff and Preston
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan103
- Y. Salech51
Preston
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cardiff a 0.4% chance of the title and Preston 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cardiff the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Cardiff against 1.13 for Preston. Cardiff's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.68 for Preston.
How the model reaches 59% for Cardiff to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cardiff to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Cardiff's ratings add 9 points and Preston's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+2
- Cardiff's ratings53%+9
- Preston's ratings59%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cardiff at home · Preston away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CardiffPreston
Cardiff are 14th after 15 Championship matches (between 11th and 22nd so far); Preston are 24th after 15 (between 21st and 24th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Cardiff 15, Preston 15.
Cardiff score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Preston have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cardiff
- at Swansea29 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
- vs Lincoln5 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
- at West Brom8 Dec · Championshipwin 26%
- vs Southampton12 Dec · Championshipwin 30%
Preston
- vs Norwich28 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- at Burnley6 Dec · Championshipwin 25%
- vs Portsmouth9 Dec · Championshipwin 30%
- vs Middlesbrough12 Dec · Championshipwin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.