Regular Season - 18 · 28 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

West Brom vs Bristol City Championship prediction

The Hawthorns, West Bromwich

Our model says: West Brom 1–0 Bristol City

The model makes it 52% West Brom, 28% draw, 20% Bristol City — fair odds of 1.92, 3.57 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: West Brom 1.56, Bristol City 0.78.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to West Brom: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. West Brom's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Bristol City's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.

Key facts

West Brom are 5th on 28 points from 15 games; Bristol City are 17th on 18 points from 15 games — Championship.
West Brom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Millwall.
Bristol City have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat at home to Norwich.
Last 6 meetings: West Brom 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Bristol City 0–1 West Brom.

More Championship predictions

All Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: West Brom vs Bristol City

43%

Both teams to score

41%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

West Brom win Draw Bristol City win

1–015%
1–112%
2–012%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
3–06%

Scores read West Brom first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

West Brom at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into West Brom vs Bristol City

West Brom

Championship

W3-0Millwall7 November 2026
D1-1Southampton3 November 2026
W3-1away to West Ham31 October 2026
D1-1away to Preston24 October 2026
W3-2Blackburn17 October 2026

Bristol City

Championship

L0-5Norwich7 November 2026
L1-2Wolves4 November 2026
W3-2away to Bolton31 October 2026
D0-0away to Stoke City24 October 2026
L0-1Sheffield Utd17 October 2026

What these results say

West Brom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
West Brom scored in every one of these 5 matches.
West Brom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Bristol City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Bristol City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	23	15	+8	28
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	16	24	-8	18

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

West Brom

Chance to finish in the top two · 14% today

Win 16%

Draw 10%

Defeat 10%

Bristol City

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today

Win 13%

Draw 17%

Defeat 21%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: West Brom vs Bristol City

21 March 2026Bristol City 0–1 West BromChampionship
26 December 2025West Brom 1–2 Bristol CityChampionship
8 April 2025Bristol City 2–1 West BromChampionship
22 December 2024West Brom 2–0 Bristol CityChampionship
16 March 2024West Brom 2–0 Bristol CityChampionship
16 September 2023Bristol City 0–0 West BromChampionship

The full West Brom vs Bristol City record →

Leading scorers: West Brom and Bristol City

West Brom

GoalsAssists

I. Price63
J. Morgan54

Bristol City

GoalsAssists

S. Twine50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives West Brom a 5.1% chance of the title and Bristol City 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

West Brom Bristol City

0.71 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61

1.06 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.44

1.56 Model expected goals (this match) 0.78

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives West Brom the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for West Brom against 0.78 for Bristol City. West Brom's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.44 for Bristol City.

West Brom carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.42 for Bristol City.

How the model reaches 52% for West Brom to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for West Brom to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, West Brom's ratings add 5 points and Bristol City's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 52%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage42%+6
Both sides at this match's level40%−2
West Brom's ratings45%+5
Bristol City's ratings52%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

West BromModelBristol City

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

68%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

41%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

21%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

43%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

West BromBristol City

15Matches15

8W 4D 3LRecord5W 3D 7L

23 1.5 per gameGoals scored16 1.1 per game

15 1.0 per gameGoals conceded24 1.6 per game

3 of 15Clean sheets2 of 15

2 of 15Failed to score6 of 15

3 of 3Penalties scored1 of 1

27 1.8 per gameYellow cards19 1.3 per game

1Red cards1

4-4-2 3×Usual shape4-2-3-1 14×

West Brom at home · Bristol City away

8Played7

4W 3D 1LRecord3W 3D 1L

13–7Goals for – against12–11

2 of 8Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

West BromBristol City

West Brom are 5th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Bristol City are 17th after 15 (between 3rd and 23rd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: West Brom 15, Bristol City 15.

West Brom scored 153457

Bristol City conceded 223727

West Brom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Bristol City have let in 7 there.

Bristol City scored 215116

West Brom conceded 211333

Bristol City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); West Brom have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

West Brom

at Portsmouth5 Dec · Championshipwin 34%
vs Cardiff8 Dec · Championshipwin 48%
at Stoke City12 Dec · Championshipwin 32%

Bristol City

vs Swansea5 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
at Derby9 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
at West Ham12 Dec · Championshipwin 17%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.