Birmingham
vs
Swansea
Championship prediction
Our model says: Birmingham 1–0 Swansea
The model makes it 41% Birmingham, 30% draw, 29% Swansea — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Birmingham 1.27, Swansea 0.97.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Birmingham's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Swansea's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,247 matches.
Key facts
- Birmingham are 4th on 20 points from 11 games; Swansea are 2nd on 23 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to QPR.
- Swansea have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to West Ham.
- Last 6 meetings: Birmingham 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Swansea 0–1 Birmingham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Birmingham vs Swansea
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Birmingham at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Birmingham vs Swansea
Birmingham
Championship
- W3-0QPR17 October 2026
- W4-0Preston13 October 2026
- W1-0away to West Brom10 October 2026
- D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
Swansea
Championship
- L0-1West Ham17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Millwall13 October 2026
- W2-1Norwich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
- W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
What these results say
- Birmingham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Swansea
- 8 August 2026Swansea 0–1 BirminghamLeague Cup
- 17 January 2026Swansea 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 20 September 2025Birmingham 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 13 January 2024Birmingham 2–2 SwanseaChampionship
- 5 August 2023Swansea 1–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 4 February 2023Swansea 3–4 BirminghamChampionship
Leading scorers: Birmingham and Swansea
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- L. Millar43
- A. Priske41
Swansea
GoalsAssists
- A. Idah41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Birmingham carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.68 for Swansea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Birmingham and 0.97 for Swansea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Birmingham rate 0.80 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Swansea rate 0.73 and 1.05.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Swansea, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Birmingham a 7% chance of the title and Swansea 6.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Birmingham the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Birmingham against 0.97 for Swansea. Birmingham's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.05 for Swansea.
How the model reaches 41% for Birmingham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Birmingham to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Birmingham's ratings take away 9 points and Swansea's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Birmingham's ratings33%−9
- Swansea's ratings41%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Birmingham at home · Swansea away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BirminghamSwansea
Birmingham are 4th after 11 Championship matches (between 3rd and 15th so far); Swansea are 2nd after 11 (between 1st and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Birmingham 11, Swansea 11.
Birmingham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Swansea have let in 3 there.
Swansea score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Birmingham have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Birmingham
- at Stoke City21 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- at Burnley25 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
Swansea
- vs West Brom21 Nov · Championshipwin 44%
- at Middlesbrough24 Nov · Championshipwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.