Southampton
vs
Derby
Championship prediction
Our model says: Southampton 2–0 Derby
The model makes it 64% Southampton, 22% draw, 14% Derby — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Southampton 2.21, Derby 0.78.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Southampton are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Southampton's rating is built from 63 Championship matches and Derby's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Southampton are 7th on 24 points from 15 games; Derby are 23rd on 10 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Southampton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Preston.
- Derby have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Bolton.
- Last 6 meetings: Southampton 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Southampton 2–1 Derby.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Southampton vs Derby
Has the model earned this number?
Southampton at 64%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Southampton vs Derby
Southampton
Championship
- L0-1away to Preston7 November 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom3 November 2026
- W4-1QPR31 October 2026
- W3-2away to West Ham24 October 2026
- D0-0Bolton17 October 2026
Derby
Championship
- W3-1Bolton6 November 2026
- L0-4Norwich3 November 2026
- L1-4away to Millwall31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sheffield Utd24 October 2026
- L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026
What these results say
- Southampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Derby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | +14 | 24 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Southampton
Chance to finish in the top two · 35% today
Derby
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Derby
- 11 April 2026Southampton 2–1 DerbyChampionship
- 4 October 2025Derby 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 16 January 2019Southampton 4–4 DerbyFA Cup
- 5 January 2019Derby 2–2 SouthamptonFA Cup
- 18 February 2012Southampton 4–0 DerbyChampionship
- 15 October 2011Derby 1–1 SouthamptonChampionship
Leading scorers: Southampton and Derby
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Southampton a 19.4% chance of the title and Derby 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Southampton v Derby has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 66% / 21% / 13% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 64% / 22% / 14%: the biggest move is Southampton's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Southampton win64%▼ −2
- Draw22%▲ +1
- Derby win14%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Southampton against 0.78 for Derby. Southampton's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.56 for Derby.
How the model reaches 64% for Southampton to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Southampton to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Southampton's ratings add 11 points and Derby's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Southampton's ratings53%+11
- Derby's ratings64%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Southampton at home · Derby away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SouthamptonDerby
Southampton are 7th after 15 Championship matches (between 2nd and 24th so far); Derby are 23rd after 15 (between 13th and 23rd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Southampton 15, Derby 15.
Southampton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Derby have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Southampton
- at Sheffield Utd24 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
- vs Middlesbrough27 Nov · Championshipwin 46%
- at Wolves5 Dec · Championshipwin 35%
- vs Burnley9 Dec · Championshipwin 65%
- at Cardiff12 Dec · Championshipwin 45%
Derby
- at Wolves24 Nov · Championshipwin 18%
- vs Watford28 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- at Middlesbrough5 Dec · Championshipwin 16%
- vs Bristol City9 Dec · Championshipwin 40%
- at Blackburn12 Dec · Championshipwin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.