Swansea
vs
West Brom
Championship prediction
Our model says: Swansea 1–0 West Brom
The model makes it 38% Swansea, 30% draw, 32% West Brom — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Swansea 1.20, West Brom 1.05.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Swansea's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and West Brom's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Swansea are 6th on 26 points from 15 games; West Brom are 5th on 28 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Swansea have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Birmingham.
- West Brom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Millwall.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 January 2026, ended Swansea 1–1 West Brom.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Swansea vs West Brom
Has the model earned this number?
Swansea at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Swansea vs West Brom
Swansea
Championship
- L1-2away to Birmingham7 November 2026
- L1-3away to Portsmouth3 November 2026
- W4-0Blackburn31 October 2026
- L0-5away to QPR24 October 2026
- L0-1West Ham17 October 2026
West Brom
Championship
- W3-0Millwall7 November 2026
- D1-1Southampton3 November 2026
- W3-1away to West Ham31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Preston24 October 2026
- W3-2Blackburn17 October 2026
What these results say
- Swansea failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Swansea had three goals or more.
- West Brom went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Brom scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- West Brom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 26 |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
West Brom
Chance to finish in the top two · 14% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Swansea vs West Brom
- 11 January 2026Swansea 1–1 West BromFA Cup
- 1 January 2026Swansea 1–0 West BromChampionship
- 29 November 2025West Brom 3–2 SwanseaChampionship
- 4 January 2025Swansea 1–1 West BromChampionship
- 31 August 2024West Brom 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 1 January 2024Swansea 1–0 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: Swansea and West Brom
Swansea
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- I. Price63
- J. Morgan54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour West Brom (fifth, with Swansea sixth), while our numbers lean to Swansea. Swansea rate 0.74 in attack and 1.23 in defence, West Brom 0.71 and 1.06 (lower is better in defence), so Swansea have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swansea a 1.8% chance of the title and West Brom 5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Swansea v West Brom has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is Swansea's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Swansea win38%▼ −2
- Draw30%=
- West Brom win32%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swansea the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Swansea against 1.05 for West Brom. Swansea's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.06 for West Brom.
How the model reaches 38% for Swansea to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Swansea to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Swansea's ratings take away 2 points and West Brom's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−1
- Swansea's ratings39%−2
- West Brom's ratings38%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Swansea at home · West Brom away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SwanseaWest Brom
Swansea are 6th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 6th so far); West Brom are 5th after 15 (between 1st and 7th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Swansea 15, West Brom 15.
Swansea score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); West Brom have let in 3 there.
West Brom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Swansea have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Swansea
- at Middlesbrough24 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Cardiff29 Nov · Championshipwin 47%
- at Bristol City5 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
- vs Bolton8 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
- at Charlton12 Dec · Championshipwin 41%
West Brom
- at Bolton25 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
- vs Bristol City28 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
- at Portsmouth5 Dec · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Cardiff8 Dec · Championshipwin 48%
- at Stoke City12 Dec · Championshipwin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.