Bristol City
vs
Wolves
Championship prediction
Our model says: Bristol City 0–1 Wolves
The model makes it 30% Bristol City, 30% draw, 40% Wolves — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bristol City 1.04, Wolves 1.27.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,028 settled matches.
Edge to Wolves: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Bristol City's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Wolves's from 38 Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,246 matches.
Key facts
- Bristol City are 16th on 14 points from 11 games; Wolves are 7th on 18 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Bristol City are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Sheffield Utd.
- Wolves have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Portsmouth.
- Last 6 meetings: Wolves 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 January 2025, ended Bristol City 1–2 Wolves.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bristol City vs Wolves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wolves at 40% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 2,030 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bristol City vs Wolves
Bristol City
- L0-1Sheffield Utd17 October 2026
- L0-1Blackburn13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Charlton10 October 2026
- W1-0Watford18 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln15 September 2026
Wolves
- D1-1Portsmouth20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Burnley16 October 2026
- L1-3Bolton13 October 2026
- L0-1away to Middlesbrough10 October 2026
- W1-0West Brom20 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bristol City had two goals or fewer.
- Bristol City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wolves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wolves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 14 |
| 7 | Wolves | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bristol City vs Wolves
- 11 January 2025Bristol City 1–2 WolvesFA Cup
- 17 February 2019Bristol City 0–1 WolvesFA Cup
- 30 December 2017Bristol City 1–2 WolvesChampionship
- 12 September 2017Wolves 3–3 Bristol CityChampionship
- 8 April 2017Bristol City 3–1 WolvesChampionship
- 26 December 2016Wolves 3–2 Bristol CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Bristol City and Wolves
Bristol City
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López53
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Bristol City carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.68 for Wolves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.04 goals for Bristol City and 1.27 for Wolves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bristol City rate 0.62 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wolves rate 0.79 and 1.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bristol City a 0.1% chance of the title and Wolves 7.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Bristol City against 1.27 for Wolves. Bristol City's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.11 for Wolves.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bristol City at home · Wolves away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Bristol CityWolves
Bristol City are 16th after 11 Championship matches (between 3rd and 23rd so far); Wolves are 7th after 11 (between 1st and 9th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Bristol City 11, Wolves 11.
Bristol City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Wolves have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bristol City
- vs Norwich7 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- at Middlesbrough21 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
- vs Wrexham24 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
Wolves
- at Wrexham7 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- vs Charlton21 Nov · Championshipwin 54%
- vs Derby24 Nov · Championshipwin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.