Preston
vs
Southampton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Preston 0–2 Southampton
The model makes it 19% Preston, 24% draw, 57% Southampton — fair odds of 5.26, 4.17 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (11%).
Expected goals: Preston 0.90, Southampton 1.96.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: Southampton are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Preston's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Southampton's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,247 matches.
Key facts
- Preston are bottom on 4 points from 11 games; Southampton are 8th on 17 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Preston have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Wrexham.
- Southampton are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Bolton.
- Last 5 meetings: Southampton 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Preston 1–3 Southampton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Preston vs Southampton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Southampton at 57% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Preston vs Southampton
Preston
Championship
- L1-4away to Wrexham17 October 2026
- L0-4away to Birmingham13 October 2026
- L0-1Millwall10 October 2026
- D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
Southampton
Championship
- D0-0Bolton17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Norwich14 October 2026
- W1-0Portsmouth11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wrexham19 September 2026
- W4-1Bristol City12 September 2026
What these results say
- Preston did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Preston conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 |
| 8 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Preston vs Southampton
- 2 May 2026Preston 1–3 SouthamptonChampionship
- 1 November 2025Southampton 0–2 PrestonChampionship
- 16 April 2024Southampton 3–0 PrestonChampionship
- 25 October 2023Preston 2–2 SouthamptonChampionship
- 21 September 2011Southampton 2–1 PrestonLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Preston and Southampton
Preston
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
- F. Azaz35
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Preston carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.79 for Southampton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.90 goals for Preston and 1.96 for Southampton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Preston rate 0.57 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Southampton rate 0.93 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Preston a 0% chance of the title and Southampton 10.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Preston against 1.96 for Southampton. Preston's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.05 for Southampton.
How the model reaches 57% for Southampton to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Southampton to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Preston's ratings add 30 points and Southampton's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Preston's ratings60%+30
- Southampton's ratings57%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Preston at home · Southampton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PrestonSouthampton
Preston are 24th after 11 Championship matches (between 21st and 24th so far); Southampton are 8th after 11 (between 6th and 24th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Preston 11, Southampton 11.
Preston score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Southampton have let in 2 there.
Southampton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Preston have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Preston
- at West Ham21 Nov · Championshipwin 8%
- at Cardiff24 Nov · Championshipwin 18%
Southampton
- vs Derby21 Nov · Championshipwin 61%
- at Sheffield Utd24 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.