Regular Season - 17 · 25 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Stoke City vs Millwall Championship prediction

Stoke on Trent

Our model says: Stoke City 1–0 Millwall

The model makes it 43% Stoke City, 28% draw, 29% Millwall — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Stoke City 1.50, Millwall 1.13.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 11 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Stoke City's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Millwall's from 63, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.

Key facts

Stoke City are 3rd on 29 points from 15 games; Millwall are 16th on 18 points from 15 games — Championship.
Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Portsmouth.
Millwall have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to West Brom.
Last 6 meetings: Millwall 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended Stoke City 1–3 Millwall.

More Championship predictions

All Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Stoke City vs Millwall

53%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Stoke City win Draw Millwall win

1–113%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–08%
0–18%
1–27%

Scores read Stoke City first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Stoke City at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Stoke City vs Millwall

Stoke City

Championship

W2-1away to Portsmouth7 November 2026
W2-1away to Blackburn3 November 2026
W2-0Preston31 October 2026
D0-0Bristol City24 October 2026
W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026

Millwall

Championship

L0-3away to West Brom7 November 2026
L0-3away to Birmingham3 November 2026
W4-1Derby31 October 2026
L1-2away to Portsmouth24 October 2026
D2-2Lincoln17 October 2026

What these results say

Stoke City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Stoke City won 4 of these 5 matches.
Stoke City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Millwall conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Every one of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	24	18	+6	29
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	23	27	-4	18

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Stoke City

Chance to finish in the top two · 9% today

Win 10%

Draw 7%

Defeat 6%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Millwall

21 April 2026Stoke City 1–3 MillwallChampionship
21 October 2025Millwall 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
15 March 2025Millwall 1–0 Stoke CityChampionship
9 November 2024Stoke City 1–1 MillwallChampionship
23 December 2023Stoke City 0–0 MillwallChampionship
26 August 2023Millwall 1–0 Stoke CityChampionship

The full Stoke City vs Millwall record →

Leading scorers: Stoke City and Millwall

Stoke City

GoalsAssists

J. McGlynn52

Millwall

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stoke City a 3.5% chance of the title and Millwall 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Stoke City Millwall

0.72 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.76

1.24 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.37

1.50 Model expected goals (this match) 1.13

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Stoke City the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stoke City against 1.13 for Millwall. Stoke City's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.37 for Millwall.

Stoke City carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.56 for Millwall. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 43% for Stoke City to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stoke City to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Stoke City's ratings change nothing and Millwall's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage42%+6
Stoke City's ratings42%±0
Millwall's ratings43%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Stoke CityModelMillwall

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

74%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

49%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

10%

1 of 10 games

27%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

70%

7 of 10 games

53%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Stoke CityMillwall

15Matches15

9W 2D 4LRecord5W 3D 7L

24 1.6 per gameGoals scored23 1.5 per game

18 1.2 per gameGoals conceded27 1.8 per game

5 of 15Clean sheets4 of 15

1 of 15Failed to score4 of 15

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1

33 2.2 per gameYellow cards29 1.9 per game

2Red cards1

3-4-3 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Stoke City at home · Millwall away

7Played8

4W 1D 2LRecord2W 1D 5L

12–6Goals for – against8–18

4 of 7Clean sheets2 of 8

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Stoke CityMillwall

Stoke City are 3rd after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 23rd so far); Millwall are 16th after 15 (between 1st and 16th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Stoke City 15, Millwall 15.

Stoke City scored 454414

Millwall conceded 233548

Stoke City score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Millwall have let in 3 there.

Millwall scored 554317

Stoke City conceded 230447

Millwall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Stoke City have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Stoke City

at West Ham28 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
vs QPR5 Dec · Championshipwin 43%
at Lincoln9 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
vs West Brom12 Dec · Championshipwin 37%

Millwall

vs Burnley28 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
at Watford5 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
vs Sheffield Utd8 Dec · Championshipwin 42%
at Wolves12 Dec · Championshipwin 24%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.