Derby
vs
Bolton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Derby 1–0 Bolton
The model makes it 37% Derby, 28% draw, 35% Bolton — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Derby 1.35, Bolton 1.29.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 939 settled matches.
A tight game: Derby and Bolton are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Derby's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Bolton's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,246 matches.
Key facts
- Derby are 23rd on 6 points from 11 games; Bolton are 15th on 14 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Derby have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Stoke City.
- Bolton have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Southampton.
- Last 6 meetings: Derby 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 March 2024, ended Derby 1–0 Bolton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Derby vs Bolton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derby at 37% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Derby vs Bolton
Derby
Championship
- L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026
- L1-4away to QPR14 October 2026
- D1-1Wrexham10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
- L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
Bolton
Championship
- D0-0away to Southampton17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Wolves13 October 2026
- L1-2Stoke City10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
What these results say
- Derby did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Derby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Derby scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bolton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Derby vs Bolton
- 16 March 2024Derby 1–0 BoltonLeague One
- 2 September 2023Bolton 2–1 DerbyLeague One
- 21 January 2023Derby 2–1 BoltonLeague One
- 27 December 2022Bolton 0–0 DerbyLeague One
- 13 April 2019Derby 4–0 BoltonChampionship
- 29 September 2018Bolton 1–0 DerbyChampionship
Leading scorers: Derby and Bolton
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Derby carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.53 for Bolton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Derby and 1.29 for Bolton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Derby rate 0.64 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bolton rate 0.74 and 1.40.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bolton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Derby a 0% chance of the title and Bolton 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Derby the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Derby against 1.29 for Bolton. Derby's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.4 for Bolton.
How the model reaches 37% for Derby to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Derby to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Derby's ratings take away 20 points and Bolton's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Derby's ratings22%−20
- Bolton's ratings37%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Derby at home · Bolton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
DerbyBolton
Derby are 23rd after 11 Championship matches (between 13th and 23rd so far); Bolton are 15th after 11 (between 1st and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Derby 11, Bolton 11.
Derby score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Bolton have let in 1 there.
Bolton score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Derby have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Derby
- at Southampton21 Nov · Championshipwin 16%
- at Wolves24 Nov · Championshipwin 22%
Bolton
- vs Portsmouth21 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- vs West Brom25 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.