Wrexham
vs
Middlesbrough
Championship prediction
Our model says: Wrexham 1–2 Middlesbrough
The model makes it 35% Wrexham, 27% draw, 38% Middlesbrough — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Wrexham 1.45, Middlesbrough 1.51.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 930 settled matches.
A tight game: Wrexham and Middlesbrough are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Wrexham's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Middlesbrough's from 60, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,246 matches.
Key facts
- Wrexham are 14th on 14 points from 11 games; Middlesbrough are 3rd on 22 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Wrexham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Preston.
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Cardiff.
- Last 3 meetings: Middlesbrough 1 win to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 August 2026, ended Middlesbrough 1–0 Wrexham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Middlesbrough at 38% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 3,397 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
Wrexham
- W4-1Preston17 October 2026
- L1-2West Brom13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Derby10 October 2026
- W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
Middlesbrough
- D2-2Cardiff17 October 2026
- W3-2away to Stoke City13 October 2026
- W1-0Wolves10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham19 September 2026
- D2-2Millwall15 September 2026
What these results say
- Wrexham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wrexham had three goals or more.
- Middlesbrough went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
- 7 August 2026Middlesbrough 1–0 WrexhamLeague Cup
- 2 May 2026Wrexham 2–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 25 October 2025Middlesbrough 1–1 WrexhamChampionship
Leading scorers: Wrexham and Middlesbrough
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore51
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear90
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wrexham carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.69 for Middlesbrough. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Wrexham and 1.51 for Middlesbrough. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wrexham rate 0.78 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Middlesbrough rate 0.89 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wrexham a 0.5% chance of the title and Middlesbrough 15.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Wrexham against 1.51 for Middlesbrough. Wrexham's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/1.23 for Middlesbrough.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wrexham at home · Middlesbrough away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
WrexhamMiddlesbrough
Wrexham are 14th after 11 Championship matches (between 10th and 16th so far); Middlesbrough are 3rd after 11 (between 2nd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Wrexham 11, Middlesbrough 11.
Wrexham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Middlesbrough have let in 5 there.
Middlesbrough score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Wrexham have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Wrexham
- vs Wolves7 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- at Lincoln21 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- at Bristol City24 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
Middlesbrough
- at Watford7 Nov · Championshipwin 49%
- vs Bristol City21 Nov · Championshipwin 54%
- vs Swansea24 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.