Charlton
vs
Sheffield Utd
Championship prediction
Our model says: Charlton 0–1 Sheffield Utd
The model makes it 32% Charlton, 30% draw, 38% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 3.13, 3.33 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Charlton 1.08, Sheffield Utd 1.25.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
Edge to Sheffield Utd: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Charlton's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Sheffield Utd's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,247 matches.
Key facts
- Charlton are 16th on 14 points from 11 games; Sheffield Utd are 11th on 15 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Charlton have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Watford.
- Sheffield Utd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Bristol City.
- Last 6 meetings: Charlton 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Charlton 1–0 Sheffield Utd.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Charlton vs Sheffield Utd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sheffield Utd at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Charlton vs Sheffield Utd
Charlton
Championship
- L0-2away to Watford17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Burnley13 October 2026
- D1-1Bristol City10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
Sheffield Utd
Championship
- W1-0away to Bristol City17 October 2026
- L2-3away to Portsmouth14 October 2026
- W3-0Lincoln10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Stoke City19 September 2026
- L0-1Wolves13 September 2026
What these results say
- Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Charlton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Utd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Sheffield Utd
- 17 January 2026Charlton 1–0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 20 September 2025Sheffield Utd 0–1 CharltonChampionship
- 18 March 2017Sheffield Utd 2–1 CharltonLeague One
- 26 November 2016Charlton 1–1 Sheffield UtdLeague One
- 9 March 2014Sheffield Utd 2–0 CharltonFA Cup
- 21 January 2012Charlton 1–0 Sheffield UtdLeague One
Leading scorers: Charlton and Sheffield Utd
Charlton
GoalsAssists
- T. Campbell41
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Charlton carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.58 for Sheffield Utd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Charlton and 1.25 for Sheffield Utd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charlton rate 0.53 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sheffield Utd rate 0.78 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Charlton a 0% chance of the title and Sheffield Utd 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sheffield Utd the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Charlton against 1.25 for Sheffield Utd. Charlton's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.35 for Sheffield Utd.
How the model reaches 38% for Sheffield Utd to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sheffield Utd to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Charlton's ratings add 22 points and Sheffield Utd's ratings take away 14 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Charlton's ratings52%+22
- Sheffield Utd's ratings38%−14
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Charlton at home · Sheffield Utd away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CharltonSheffield Utd
Charlton are 16th after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 13th so far); Sheffield Utd are 11th after 11 (between 8th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Charlton 11, Sheffield Utd 11.
Charlton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Sheffield Utd have let in 1 there.
Sheffield Utd score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Charlton have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Charlton
- at Wolves21 Nov · Championshipwin 21%
- vs Lincoln24 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
Sheffield Utd
- vs Watford21 Nov · Championshipwin 55%
- vs Southampton24 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.