Lincoln
vs
Wrexham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Lincoln 0–1 Wrexham
The model makes it 35% Lincoln, 29% draw, 36% Wrexham — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lincoln 1.27, Wrexham 1.31.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Lincoln and Wrexham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Lincoln's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and Wrexham's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Lincoln are 21st on 15 points from 15 games; Wrexham are 15th on 18 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Lincoln are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to QPR.
- Wrexham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Wolves.
- Last 6 meetings: Wrexham 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2025, ended Lincoln 0–2 Wrexham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lincoln vs Wrexham
Has the model earned this number?
Wrexham at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lincoln vs Wrexham
Lincoln
Championship
- L1-2away to QPR7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Watford3 November 2026
- L1-3Birmingham31 October 2026
- W4-1Burnley24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Millwall17 October 2026
Wrexham
Championship
- D1-1Wolves7 November 2026
- W2-0Middlesbrough4 November 2026
- L0-1away to Sheffield Utd30 October 2026
- L0-2away to Blackburn24 October 2026
- W4-1Preston17 October 2026
What these results say
- Lincoln conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lincoln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lincoln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wrexham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wrexham had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lincoln
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lincoln vs Wrexham
- 3 May 2025Lincoln 0–2 WrexhamLeague One
- 26 November 2024Wrexham 1–0 LincolnLeague One
- 29 November 2016Lincoln 1–0 WrexhamNational League
- 4 October 2016Wrexham 1–2 LincolnNational League
- 23 January 2016Wrexham 3–1 LincolnNational League
- 5 September 2015Lincoln 1–1 WrexhamNational League
Leading scorers: Lincoln and Wrexham
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lincoln a 0% chance of the title and Wrexham 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wrexham the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Lincoln against 1.31 for Wrexham. Lincoln's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.3 for Wrexham.
How the model reaches 36% for Wrexham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wrexham to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Lincoln's ratings add 3 points and Wrexham's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Lincoln's ratings33%+3
- Wrexham's ratings36%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lincoln at home · Wrexham away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LincolnWrexham
Lincoln are 21st after 15 Championship matches (between 8th and 23rd so far); Wrexham are 15th after 15 (between 10th and 17th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Lincoln 15, Wrexham 15.
Lincoln score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Wrexham have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lincoln
- at Charlton24 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Wolves28 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
- at Cardiff5 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Stoke City9 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
- vs Norwich13 Dec · Championshipwin 29%
Wrexham
- at Bristol City24 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Portsmouth28 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
- at Norwich5 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Charlton8 Dec · Championshipwin 50%
- at Bolton11 Dec · Championshipwin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.