Portsmouth
vs
Stoke City
Championship prediction
Our model says: Portsmouth 1–0 Stoke City
The model makes it 41% Portsmouth, 29% draw, 30% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.38, Stoke City 1.13.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Portsmouth's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Stoke City's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,247 matches.
Key facts
- Portsmouth are 13th on 15 points from 11 games; Stoke City are 6th on 19 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Portsmouth are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Wolves.
- Stoke City have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Derby.
- Last 5 meetings: Stoke City 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Stoke City 1–3 Portsmouth.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Portsmouth vs Stoke City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portsmouth at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Portsmouth vs Stoke City
Portsmouth
Championship
- D1-1away to Wolves20 October 2026
- W1-0away to Norwich17 October 2026
- W3-2Sheffield Utd14 October 2026
- L0-1away to Southampton11 October 2026
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
Stoke City
Championship
- W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026
- L2-3Middlesbrough13 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bolton10 October 2026
- W2-1Sheffield Utd19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
What these results say
- Portsmouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portsmouth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Portsmouth | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Stoke City
- 25 April 2026Stoke City 1–3 PortsmouthChampionship
- 25 October 2025Portsmouth 0–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 22 January 2025Portsmouth 3–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 2 October 2024Stoke City 6–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 27 August 2014Stoke City 3–0 PortsmouthLeague Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Portsmouth carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.53 for Stoke City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Portsmouth and 1.13 for Stoke City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portsmouth rate 0.67 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stoke City rate 0.72 and 1.37.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Stoke City, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portsmouth a 0.1% chance of the title and Stoke City 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portsmouth the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Portsmouth against 1.13 for Stoke City. Portsmouth's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.37 for Stoke City.
How the model reaches 41% for Portsmouth to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Portsmouth to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Portsmouth's ratings take away 17 points and Stoke City's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Portsmouth's ratings25%−17
- Stoke City's ratings41%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Portsmouth at home · Stoke City away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PortsmouthStoke City
Portsmouth are 13th after 11 Championship matches (between 9th and 22nd so far); Stoke City are 6th after 11 (between 3rd and 23rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Portsmouth 11, Stoke City 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Portsmouth
- at Bolton21 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- vs West Ham24 Nov · Championshipwin 25%
Stoke City
- vs Birmingham21 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- vs Millwall25 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.