Regular Season - 17 · 24 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Norwich vs QPR Championship prediction

Carrow Road, Norwich

Our model says: Norwich 2–1 QPR

The model makes it 51% Norwich, 24% draw, 25% QPR — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Norwich 1.98, QPR 1.23.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 10 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Norwich's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and QPR's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.

Key facts

Norwich are 12th on 21 points from 15 games; QPR are 8th on 24 points from 15 games — Championship.
Norwich are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Bristol City.
QPR have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Lincoln.
Last 6 meetings: Norwich 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 January 2026, ended QPR 1–2 Norwich.

More Championship predictions

All Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Norwich vs QPR

62%

Both teams to score

62%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Norwich win Draw QPR win

1–110%
2–110%
2–08%
1–08%
3–16%
1–26%
2–26%

Scores read Norwich first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Norwich at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Norwich vs QPR

Norwich

Championship

W5-0away to Bristol City7 November 2026
W4-0away to Derby3 November 2026
W3-2Watford31 October 2026
W3-1away to Charlton24 October 2026
L0-1Portsmouth17 October 2026

QPR

Championship

W2-1Lincoln7 November 2026
D1-1Burnley3 November 2026
L1-4away to Southampton31 October 2026
W5-0Swansea24 October 2026
L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026

What these results say

Norwich won 4 of these 5 matches.
Norwich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Norwich had three goals or more.
QPR scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
QPR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for QPR had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	32	24	+8	21
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	24	18	+6	24

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Norwich

Chance to finish in the top two · 11% today

Win 12%

Draw 9%

Defeat 7%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Norwich vs QPR

1 January 2026QPR 1–2 NorwichChampionship
29 November 2025Norwich 3–1 QPRChampionship
29 December 2024Norwich 1–1 QPRChampionship
7 December 2024QPR 3–0 NorwichChampionship
10 February 2024QPR 2–2 NorwichChampionship
25 November 2023Norwich 1–0 QPRChampionship

The full Norwich vs QPR record →

Leading scorers: Norwich and QPR

Norwich

GoalsAssists

M. Touré50

QPR

GoalsAssists

R. Kone51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour QPR (8th, with Norwich 12th), while our numbers lean to Norwich. Norwich rate 0.97 in attack and 1.35 in defence, QPR 0.76 and 1.34 (lower is better in defence), so Norwich have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Norwich a 3.6% chance of the title and QPR 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Norwich QPR

0.97 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.76

1.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.34

1.98 Model expected goals (this match) 1.23

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Norwich the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Norwich against 1.23 for QPR. Norwich's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.34 for QPR.

Norwich carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.57 for QPR. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 51% for Norwich to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Norwich to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Norwich's ratings add 4 points and QPR's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 51%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage42%+6
Both sides at this match's level44%+2
Norwich's ratings48%+4
QPR's ratings51%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

NorwichModelQPR

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

83%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

62%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

40%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

62%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

NorwichQPR

15Matches15

7W 0D 8LRecord6W 6D 3L

32 2.1 per gameGoals scored24 1.6 per game

24 1.6 per gameGoals conceded18 1.2 per game

2 of 15Clean sheets3 of 15

4 of 15Failed to score4 of 15

1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 3

28 1.9 per gameYellow cards29 1.9 per game

1Red cards1

4-2-3-1 15×Usual shape4-4-2 8×

Norwich at home · QPR away

7Played7

3W 0D 4LRecord2W 3D 2L

13–12Goals for – against8–11

0 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

NorwichQPR

Norwich are 12th after 15 Championship matches (between 9th and 23rd so far); QPR are 8th after 15 (between 1st and 11th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Norwich 15, QPR 15.

Norwich scored 664492

QPR conceded 343332

Norwich score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); QPR have let in 3 there.

QPR scored 435353

Norwich conceded 642634

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Norwich

at Preston28 Nov · Championshipwin 51%
vs Wrexham5 Dec · Championshipwin 51%
at Blackburn8 Dec · Championshipwin 40%
at Lincoln13 Dec · Championshipwin 45%

QPR

vs Sheffield Utd28 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
at Stoke City5 Dec · Championshipwin 29%
vs Wolves8 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
vs Watford12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.