Blackburn
vs
Charlton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Blackburn 1–0 Charlton
The model makes it 47% Blackburn, 30% draw, 23% Charlton — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Blackburn 1.39, Charlton 0.80.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Blackburn: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Blackburn's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Charlton's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Blackburn are 13th on 21 points from 15 games; Charlton are 19th on 17 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Blackburn have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to West Ham.
- Charlton have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Sheffield Utd.
- Last 6 meetings: Charlton 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 January 2026, ended Blackburn 2–2 Charlton.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Blackburn vs Charlton
Has the model earned this number?
Blackburn at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Blackburn vs Charlton
Blackburn
Championship
- W2-1West Ham7 November 2026
- L1-2Stoke City3 November 2026
- L0-4away to Swansea31 October 2026
- W2-0Wrexham24 October 2026
- L2-3away to West Brom17 October 2026
Charlton
Championship
- W2-1Sheffield Utd7 November 2026
- L0-1Bolton3 November 2026
- L0-3away to Middlesbrough31 October 2026
- L1-3Norwich24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Watford17 October 2026
What these results say
- Blackburn scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Blackburn had three goals or more.
- Charlton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Charlton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Charlton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Charlton
- 4 January 2026Blackburn 2–2 CharltonChampionship
- 27 September 2025Charlton 3–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 15 February 2020Charlton 0–2 BlackburnChampionship
- 3 August 2019Blackburn 1–2 CharltonChampionship
- 28 April 2018Charlton 1–0 BlackburnLeague One
- 16 December 2017Blackburn 2–0 CharltonLeague One
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Charlton
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen101
- O. Afolayan52
Charlton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Blackburn a 0.2% chance of the title and Charlton 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Blackburn the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Blackburn against 0.80 for Charlton. Blackburn's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.38 for Charlton.
How the model reaches 47% for Blackburn to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Blackburn to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Blackburn's ratings add 4 points and Charlton's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−2
- Blackburn's ratings44%+4
- Charlton's ratings47%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Blackburn at home · Charlton away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BlackburnCharlton
Blackburn are 13th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Charlton are 19th after 15 (between 1st and 21st). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Blackburn 15, Charlton 15.
Blackburn score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Charlton have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Blackburn
- at Bolton5 Dec · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Norwich8 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
- vs Derby12 Dec · Championshipwin 47%
Charlton
- vs Birmingham5 Dec · Championshipwin 23%
- at Wrexham8 Dec · Championshipwin 21%
- vs Swansea12 Dec · Championshipwin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.