QPR
vs
Sheffield Utd
Championship prediction
Our model says: QPR 2–1 Sheffield Utd
The model makes it 42% QPR, 28% draw, 30% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: QPR 1.54, Sheffield Utd 1.22.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. QPR's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Sheffield Utd's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- QPR are 8th on 24 points from 15 games; Sheffield Utd are 10th on 22 points from 15 games — Championship.
- QPR have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Lincoln.
- Sheffield Utd have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Charlton.
- Last 6 meetings: Sheffield Utd 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended QPR 0–2 Sheffield Utd.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: QPR vs Sheffield Utd
Has the model earned this number?
QPR at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into QPR vs Sheffield Utd
QPR
Championship
- W2-1Lincoln7 November 2026
- D1-1Burnley3 November 2026
- L1-4away to Southampton31 October 2026
- W5-0Swansea24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026
Sheffield Utd
Championship
- L1-2away to Charlton7 November 2026
- W3-2away to Preston3 November 2026
- W1-0Wrexham30 October 2026
- D1-1Derby24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City17 October 2026
What these results say
- QPR scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for QPR had three goals or more.
- Sheffield Utd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 24 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: QPR vs Sheffield Utd
- 28 February 2026QPR 0–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 8 November 2025Sheffield Utd 0–0 QPRChampionship
- 1 March 2025QPR 1–2 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 17 August 2024Sheffield Utd 2–2 QPRChampionship
- 2 January 2023QPR 1–1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 4 October 2022Sheffield Utd 0–1 QPRChampionship
Leading scorers: QPR and Sheffield Utd
QPR
GoalsAssists
- R. Kone51
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives QPR a 0.4% chance of the title and Sheffield Utd 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives QPR the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for QPR against 1.22 for Sheffield Utd. QPR's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.33 for Sheffield Utd.
How the model reaches 42% for QPR to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for QPR to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, QPR's ratings take away 1 point and Sheffield Utd's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level43%+1
- QPR's ratings42%−1
- Sheffield Utd's ratings42%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
QPR at home · Sheffield Utd away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
QPRSheffield Utd
QPR are 8th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Sheffield Utd are 10th after 15 (between 8th and 15th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: QPR 15, Sheffield Utd 15.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
QPR
- at Stoke City5 Dec · Championshipwin 29%
- vs Wolves8 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Watford12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%
Sheffield Utd
- vs West Ham4 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- at Millwall8 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
- vs Burnley12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.