Lincoln
vs
Wolves
Championship prediction
Our model says: Lincoln 0–1 Wolves
The model makes it 28% Lincoln, 28% draw, 44% Wolves — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Lincoln 1.11, Wolves 1.52.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Edge to Wolves: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Lincoln's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and Wolves's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Lincoln are 21st on 15 points from 15 games; Wolves are 4th on 28 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Lincoln are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to QPR.
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Wrexham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lincoln vs Wolves
Has the model earned this number?
Wolves at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lincoln vs Wolves
Lincoln
Championship
- L1-2away to QPR7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Watford3 November 2026
- L1-3Birmingham31 October 2026
- W4-1Burnley24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Millwall17 October 2026
Wolves
Championship
- D1-1away to Wrexham7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Bristol City4 November 2026
- W3-0Cardiff31 October 2026
- W1-0Watford24 October 2026
- D1-1Portsmouth20 October 2026
What these results say
- Lincoln conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lincoln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lincoln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wolves went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Wolves scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lincoln
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
Wolves
Chance to finish in the top two · 21% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Lincoln and Wolves
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lincoln a 0% chance of the title and Wolves 10.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Lincoln against 1.52 for Wolves. Lincoln's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.14 for Wolves.
How the model reaches 44% for Wolves to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wolves to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Lincoln's ratings add 7 points and Wolves's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Lincoln's ratings37%+7
- Wolves's ratings44%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lincoln at home · Wolves away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LincolnWolves
Lincoln are 21st after 15 Championship matches (between 8th and 23rd so far); Wolves are 4th after 15 (between 1st and 9th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Lincoln 15, Wolves 15.
Lincoln score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Wolves have let in 3 there.
Wolves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Lincoln have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Lincoln
- at Cardiff5 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Stoke City9 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
- vs Norwich13 Dec · Championshipwin 29%
Wolves
- vs Southampton5 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- at QPR8 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Millwall12 Dec · Championshipwin 49%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.