Regular Season - 17 · 24 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Sheffield Utd vs Southampton Championship prediction

Bramall Lane, Sheffield

Our model says: Sheffield Utd 0–1 Southampton

The model makes it 30% Sheffield Utd, 28% draw, 42% Southampton — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Sheffield Utd 1.19, Southampton 1.48.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Southampton: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 10 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Sheffield Utd's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Southampton's from 63, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.

Key facts

Sheffield Utd are 10th on 22 points from 15 games; Southampton are 7th on 24 points from 15 games — Championship.
Sheffield Utd have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Charlton.
Southampton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Preston.
Last 6 meetings: Southampton 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 January 2026, ended Southampton 1–0 Sheffield Utd.

More Championship predictions

All Championship predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sheffield Utd vs Southampton

55%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sheffield Utd win Draw Southampton win

1–113%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–08%
2–17%

Scores read Sheffield Utd first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Southampton at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Southampton

Sheffield Utd

Championship

L1-2away to Charlton7 November 2026
W3-2away to Preston3 November 2026
W1-0Wrexham30 October 2026
D1-1Derby24 October 2026
W1-0away to Bristol City17 October 2026

Southampton

Championship

L0-1away to Preston7 November 2026
D1-1away to West Brom3 November 2026
W4-1QPR31 October 2026
W3-2away to West Ham24 October 2026
D0-0Bolton17 October 2026

What these results say

Sheffield Utd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Southampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	21	19	+2	22
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	29	15	+14	24

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Southampton

Chance to finish in the top two · 35% today

Win 40%

Draw 33%

Defeat 30%

From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Southampton

21 January 2026Southampton 1–0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
30 September 2025Sheffield Utd 1–2 SouthamptonChampionship
21 September 2021Sheffield Utd 2–2 SouthamptonLeague Cup
6 March 2021Sheffield Utd 0–2 SouthamptonPremier League
13 December 2020Southampton 3–0 Sheffield UtdPremier League
26 July 2020Southampton 3–1 Sheffield UtdPremier League

The full Sheffield Utd vs Southampton record →

Leading scorers: Sheffield Utd and Southampton

Sheffield Utd

GoalsAssists

P. Bamford51

Southampton

GoalsAssists

C. Larin70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sheffield Utd a 0.6% chance of the title and Southampton 19.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sheffield Utd Southampton

0.76 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.93

1.33 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.03

1.19 Model expected goals (this match) 1.48

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sheffield Utd against 1.48 for Southampton. Sheffield Utd's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.03 for Southampton.

Sheffield Utd carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.8 for Southampton.

How the model reaches 42% for Southampton to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Southampton to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Sheffield Utd's ratings add 6 points and Southampton's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 42%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage30%−6
Sheffield Utd's ratings36%+6
Southampton's ratings42%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Sheffield UtdModelSouthampton

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

75%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

50%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

20%

2 of 10 games

28%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

55%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Sheffield UtdSouthampton

15Matches15

6W 4D 5LRecord8W 4D 3L

21 1.4 per gameGoals scored29 1.9 per game

19 1.3 per gameGoals conceded15 1.0 per game

5 of 15Clean sheets3 of 15

3 of 15Failed to score2 of 15

1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2

26 1.7 per gameYellow cards27 1.8 per game

1Red cards1

4-4-2 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 13×

Sheffield Utd at home · Southampton away

7Played8

3W 2D 2LRecord2W 3D 3L

9–7Goals for – against9–10

3 of 7Clean sheets1 of 8

League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Sheffield UtdSouthampton

Sheffield Utd are 10th after 15 Championship matches (between 8th and 15th so far); Southampton are 7th after 15 (between 2nd and 24th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Championship matches this season: Sheffield Utd 15, Southampton 15.

Sheffield Utd scored 444423

Southampton conceded 242222

Southampton scored 526637

Sheffield Utd conceded 514126

Southampton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Sheffield Utd have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Sheffield Utd

at QPR28 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
vs West Ham4 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
at Millwall8 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
vs Burnley12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%

Southampton

vs Middlesbrough27 Nov · Championshipwin 46%
at Wolves5 Dec · Championshipwin 35%
vs Burnley9 Dec · Championshipwin 65%
at Cardiff12 Dec · Championshipwin 45%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.