Norwich
vs
Cardiff
Championship prediction
Our model says: Norwich 2–1 Cardiff
The model makes it 54% Norwich, 22% draw, 24% Cardiff — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Norwich 2.44, Cardiff 1.47.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Norwich: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Norwich's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Cardiff's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Norwich are 12th on 21 points from 15 games; Cardiff are 14th on 18 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Norwich are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-0 win away to Bristol City.
- Cardiff have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-4 win at home to Burnley.
- Last 6 meetings: Norwich 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 August 2026, ended Cardiff 1–2 Norwich.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Norwich vs Cardiff
Has the model earned this number?
Norwich at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Norwich vs Cardiff
Norwich
Championship
- W5-0away to Bristol City7 November 2026
- W4-0away to Derby3 November 2026
- W3-2Watford31 October 2026
- W3-1away to Charlton24 October 2026
- L0-1Portsmouth17 October 2026
Cardiff
Championship
- W5-4Burnley7 November 2026
- D3-3West Ham4 November 2026
- L0-3away to Wolves31 October 2026
- W1-0Birmingham24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough17 October 2026
What these results say
- Norwich won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Norwich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Norwich had three goals or more.
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cardiff had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 24 | +8 | 21 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Norwich
Chance to finish in the top two · 11% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Norwich vs Cardiff
- 25 August 2026Cardiff 1–2 NorwichLeague Cup
- 3 May 2025Norwich 4–2 CardiffChampionship
- 2 November 2024Cardiff 2–1 NorwichChampionship
- 17 February 2024Norwich 4–1 CardiffChampionship
- 11 November 2023Cardiff 2–3 NorwichChampionship
- 25 February 2023Norwich 2–0 CardiffChampionship
Leading scorers: Norwich and Cardiff
Norwich
GoalsAssists
- M. Touré50
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan103
- Y. Salech51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Norwich a 3.6% chance of the title and Cardiff 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Norwich v Cardiff has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 49% / 24% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 54% / 22% / 24%: the biggest move is Norwich's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Norwich win54%▲ +5
- Draw22%▼ −2
- Cardiff win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Norwich the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Norwich against 1.47 for Cardiff. Norwich's attack/defence rating is 0.97/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.65 for Cardiff.
How the model reaches 54% for Norwich to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Norwich to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 4 points, Norwich's ratings add 4 points and Cardiff's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level46%+4
- Norwich's ratings50%+4
- Cardiff's ratings54%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Norwich at home · Cardiff away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
NorwichCardiff
Norwich are 12th after 15 Championship matches (between 9th and 23rd so far); Cardiff are 14th after 15 (between 11th and 22nd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Norwich 15, Cardiff 15.
Norwich score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Cardiff have let in 2 there.
Cardiff score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Norwich have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Norwich
- vs QPR24 Nov · Championshipwin 51%
- at Preston28 Nov · Championshipwin 51%
- vs Wrexham5 Dec · Championshipwin 51%
- at Blackburn8 Dec · Championshipwin 40%
- at Lincoln13 Dec · Championshipwin 45%
Cardiff
- vs Preston24 Nov · Championshipwin 59%
- at Swansea29 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
- vs Lincoln5 Dec · Championshipwin 53%
- at West Brom8 Dec · Championshipwin 26%
- vs Southampton12 Dec · Championshipwin 30%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.