Blackburn
vs
West Ham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Blackburn 1–2 West Ham
The model makes it 25% Blackburn, 25% draw, 50% West Ham — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Blackburn 1.16, West Ham 1.88.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: West Ham are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Blackburn's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and West Ham's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,247 matches.
Key facts
- Blackburn are 10th on 15 points from 11 games; West Ham are 3rd on 22 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Blackburn have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to West Brom.
- West Ham are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Swansea.
- Last 4 meetings: West Ham 1 win to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 November 2022, ended West Ham 2–2 Blackburn.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Blackburn vs West Ham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 50% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Blackburn vs West Ham
Blackburn
Championship
- L2-3away to West Brom17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City13 October 2026
- W2-1Cardiff10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Portsmouth19 September 2026
- W3-1Millwall12 September 2026
West Ham
Championship
- W1-0away to Swansea17 October 2026
- W6-0away to Lincoln14 October 2026
- D1-1QPR9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Millwall19 September 2026
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
What these results say
- Blackburn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Blackburn had three goals or more.
- West Ham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 15 |
| 3 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs West Ham
- 9 November 2022West Ham 2–2 BlackburnLeague Cup
- 21 February 2016Blackburn 1–5 West HamFA Cup
- 7 May 2011West Ham 1–1 BlackburnPremier League
- 18 December 2010Blackburn 1–1 West HamPremier League
Leading scorers: Blackburn and West Ham
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen61
- O. Afolayan42
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen65
- K. Mavropanos50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Blackburn carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.88 for West Ham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for Blackburn and 1.88 for West Ham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Blackburn rate 0.67 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Ham rate 1.20 and 1.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Blackburn a 0.4% chance of the title and West Ham 51.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Blackburn against 1.88 for West Ham. Blackburn's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.2/1.15 for West Ham.
How the model reaches 50% for West Ham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for West Ham to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Blackburn's ratings add 17 points and West Ham's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Blackburn's ratings47%+17
- West Ham's ratings50%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Blackburn at home · West Ham away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BlackburnWest Ham
Blackburn are 10th after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 16th so far); West Ham are 3rd after 11 (between 1st and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Blackburn 11, West Ham 11.
Blackburn score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); West Ham have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Blackburn
- at Burnley22 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- at Watford25 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
West Ham
- vs Preston21 Nov · Championshipwin 78%
- at Portsmouth24 Nov · Championshipwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.