- West Ham — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 20 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +11. Form, oldest first: D W W W W.
- Swansea — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 11 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +6. Form, oldest first: W W D L W.
- West Brom — 14 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 10 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: L D W W D.
- Middlesbrough — 13 points from 6 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost), 12 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: L W D W W.
- QPR — 12 points from 7 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 8 scored, 5 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W W L D D.
- Charlton — 12 points from 7 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 6 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W D L D D.
- Wolves — 11 points from 6 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 14 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: W W L D W.
- Southampton — 10 points from 7 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 1 lost), 18 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W D D W W.
- Birmingham — 10 points from 7 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 10 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W D D L W.
- Stoke City — 10 points from 7 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 11 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L W W D W.
- Bristol City — 10 points from 6 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost), 10 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D W W W L.
- Norwich — 9 points from 7 played (3 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost), 13 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W L W W L.
- Millwall — 9 points from 6 played (3 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost), 11 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: W L L W L.
- Sheffield Utd — 9 points from 7 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 8 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D W L W L.
- Blackburn — 8 points from 7 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L D L L W.
- Lincoln — 8 points from 6 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 5 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: L W D D W.
- Watford — 8 points from 7 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: D L L W L.
- Portsmouth — 7 points from 6 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: W L L W D.
- Wrexham — 7 points from 7 played (1 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 7 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: L W D D L.
- Bolton — 7 points from 7 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 7 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
- Cardiff — 4 points from 7 played (0 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: D L L D L.
- Derby — 4 points from 7 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 5 lost), 6 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L W L L L.
- Preston — 3 points from 7 played (1 won, 0 drawn, 6 lost), 6 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L L W L L.
- Burnley — 3 points from 7 played (0 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 8 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L D L D L.
What moved
Measured against 2026-09-13, the last update whose numbers changed —
not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried
forward rather than restamped. 24 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.
- Derby — chance of finishing top down 0.4, to 0%; bottom-three risk up 32.5, to 49.2%.
- Burnley — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 0.1%; bottom-three risk down 31.2, to 23.1%.
- Preston — bottom-three risk up 26.2, to 71.8%.
- Southampton — chance of finishing top up 23.2, to 35.3%; bottom-three risk down 0.7, to 0%.
- West Ham — chance of finishing top down 14.4, to 9.1%.
Season projection
Every one of the 471 matches this phase has left,
played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each
side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a
title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those
depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-09-13, the last update whose numbers changed.
- Southampton — projected to finish on 80.7 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 35.3% (up 23.2), finishes top four 76.4%, bottom three 0%.
- Middlesbrough — projected to finish on 76.8 points, from 13 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 16.9% (down 5.7), finishes top four 56.6%, bottom three 0.1%.
- Swansea — projected to finish on 74.9 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 11.3% (up 5.7), finishes top four 46.5%, bottom three 0.1%.
- West Ham — projected to finish on 73.5 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 9.1% (down 14.4), finishes top four 41.1%, bottom three 0.2%.
- Stoke City — projected to finish on 72.3 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 6.7% (up 5), finishes top four 34.5%, bottom three 0.3%.
- Wolves — projected to finish on 71.9 points, from 11 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 6.2% (down 4.1), finishes top four 32.2%, bottom three 0.3%.
- West Brom — projected to finish on 71.7 points, from 14 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 5.9% (up 3.4), finishes top four 31%, bottom three 0.4%.
- QPR — projected to finish on 67.9 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.3% (up 0.1), finishes top four 17.1%, bottom three 0.8%.
- Norwich — projected to finish on 65.1 points, from 9 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1.1% (down 1.5), finishes top four 10%, bottom three 2.1%.
- Charlton — projected to finish on 65 points, from 12 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1%, finishes top four 8.3%, bottom three 2.3%.
- Birmingham — projected to finish on 64.8 points, from 10 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 1% (down 1.6), finishes top four 9.5%, bottom three 2.5%.
- Lincoln — projected to finish on 64.8 points, from 8 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8% (down 0.8), finishes top four 9.2%, bottom three 2.3%.
- Bristol City — projected to finish on 64.1 points, from 10 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8% (down 1.9), finishes top four 7.9%, bottom three 3.2%.
- Millwall — projected to finish on 64 points, from 9 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.9% (down 3.6), finishes top four 8%, bottom three 3.2%.
- Portsmouth — projected to finish on 60.3 points, from 7 after 6 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3% (down 0.2), finishes top four 3.5%, bottom three 7.7%.
- Watford — projected to finish on 59.6 points, from 8 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.2%, finishes top four 2.5%, bottom three 8.4%.
- Blackburn — projected to finish on 58.9 points, from 8 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.2), finishes top four 1.9%, bottom three 10.2%.
- Wrexham — projected to finish on 58.1 points, from 7 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 0.9), finishes top four 1.8%, bottom three 11.6%.
- Sheffield Utd — projected to finish on 57 points, from 9 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (down 2), finishes top four 1%, bottom three 14%.
- Burnley — projected to finish on 54.7 points, from 3 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1% (up 0.1), finishes top four 0.8%, bottom three 23.1%.
- Bolton — projected to finish on 50.7 points, from 7 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0% (down 0.1), finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 40.9%.
- Cardiff — projected to finish on 49.6 points, from 4 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0% (down 0.1), finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 45.7%.
- Derby — projected to finish on 49.1 points, from 4 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0% (down 0.4), finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 49.2%.
- Preston — projected to finish on 44.6 points, from 3 after 7 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 71.8%.
Top scorers
- C. Larin (Southampton) — 7 goals.
- W. Lankshear (Middlesbrough) — 5 goals.
- M. Touré (Norwich) — 4 goals.
- J. Bowen (West Ham) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
- F. Azaz (Southampton) — 3 goals, 4 assists.
- J. Morgan (West Brom) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
- Fer López (Wolves) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
- A. Idah (Swansea) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
- A. Guðjohnsen (Blackburn) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
- Amin Nabizada (Watford) — 3 goals.
- C. Lang (Preston) — 3 goals.
- E. Galbraith (Stoke City) — 3 goals.
- J. Piroe (West Ham) — 3 goals.
- K. Mavropanos (West Ham) — 3 goals.
- Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell (Charlton) — 3 goals.
- L. Dykes (Millwall) — 3 goals.
- R. Jiménez (Wolves) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
- E. Bocat (Stoke City) — 2 goals, 2 assists.
- B. Clark (Derby) — 2 goals, 2 assists.
- Eom Ji-Sung (Swansea) — 2 goals, 2 assists.