Championship (England)

1. Middlesbrough — 25 points from 12 played (7 won, 4 drawn, 1 lost), 27 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: D W W D W.
2. Swansea — 23 points from 12 played (7 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 16 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W W W L L.
3. West Ham — 22 points from 12 played (6 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 32 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +17. Form, oldest first: D D W W L.
4. Wolves — 21 points from 12 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 20 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: L L W D W.
5. West Brom — 21 points from 12 played (6 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 16 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: L L W W D.
6. Southampton — 20 points from 12 played (7 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 24 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +12. Form, oldest first: L W W D W.
7. Birmingham — 20 points from 12 played (5 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost), 20 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: D W W W L.
8. QPR — 20 points from 12 played (5 won, 5 drawn, 2 lost), 20 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: D D W L W.
9. Stoke City — 20 points from 12 played (6 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 18 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W W L W D.
10. Blackburn — 18 points from 12 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 19 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D W W L W.
11. Portsmouth — 18 points from 12 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 16 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: L W W D W.
12. Sheffield Utd — 16 points from 12 played (4 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost), 16 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: L W L W D.
13. Millwall — 15 points from 12 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 19 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D W L D L.
14. Bristol City — 15 points from 12 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 12 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: W D L L D.
15. Lincoln — 15 points from 12 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 13 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L L L D W.
16. Cardiff — 14 points from 12 played (3 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 19 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W L W D W.
17. Wrexham — 14 points from 12 played (3 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 15 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: W D L W L.
18. Bolton — 14 points from 12 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 16 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: W L W D L.
19. Charlton — 14 points from 12 played (3 won, 5 drawn, 4 lost), 11 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: L D D L L.
20. Norwich — 12 points from 12 played (4 won, 0 drawn, 8 lost), 20 scored, 22 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
21. Watford — 11 points from 12 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost), 10 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L L L W L.
22. Burnley — 8 points from 12 played (1 won, 5 drawn, 6 lost), 17 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: D W D L L.
23. Derby — 7 points from 12 played (1 won, 4 drawn, 7 lost), 10 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: D D L L D.
24. Preston — 5 points from 12 played (1 won, 2 drawn, 9 lost), 10 scored, 25 conceded, goal difference -15. Form, oldest first: D L L L D.

What moved

Measured against 2026-10-29, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 8 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Birmingham — chance of finishing top down 0.6, to 3.7%.
• Bolton — bottom-three risk up 0.2, to 11%.
• Southampton — chance of finishing top up 0.2, to 20.5%.
• West Ham — chance of finishing top up 0.2, to 41.5%.
• Cardiff — chance of finishing top up 0.1, to 0.9%.

Season projection

Every one of the 408 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Semi-finals, Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-10-29, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. West Ham — projected to finish on 89.2 points, from 22 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 41.5% (up 0.2), finishes top two 62.2%, bottom three 0%.
2. Southampton — projected to finish on 84 points, from 20 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 20.5% (up 0.2), finishes top two 40.4%, bottom three 0%.
3. Middlesbrough — projected to finish on 83.4 points, from 25 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 19.3% (up 0.1), finishes top two 37.9%, bottom three 0%.
4. Birmingham — projected to finish on 75.7 points, from 20 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 3.7% (down 0.6), finishes top two 12.3%, bottom three 0%.
5. Swansea — projected to finish on 73.7 points, from 23 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 2.9%, finishes top two 10.1%, bottom three 0.1%.
6. Wolves — projected to finish on 73 points, from 21 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 3.4%, finishes top two 10%, bottom three 0.3%.
7. QPR — projected to finish on 71.6 points, from 20 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 3.2%, finishes top two 8.3%, bottom three 0.5%.
8. Stoke City — projected to finish on 66.4 points, from 20 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.4%, finishes top two 1.9%, bottom three 1.2%.
9. West Brom — projected to finish on 66 points, from 21 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8%, finishes top two 2.6%, bottom three 1.7%.
10. Millwall — projected to finish on 66 points, from 15 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5%, finishes top two 2.1%, bottom three 1.1%.
11. Blackburn — projected to finish on 65.4 points, from 18 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.7%, finishes top two 2.3%, bottom three 2.1%.
12. Cardiff — projected to finish on 64.8 points, from 14 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.9% (up 0.1), finishes top two 2.8%, bottom three 2.8%.
13. Sheffield Utd — projected to finish on 64.8 points, from 16 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.8%, finishes top two 2.5%, bottom three 2.4%.
14. Portsmouth — projected to finish on 63.9 points, from 18 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.6%, finishes top two 2%, bottom three 2.6%.
15. Norwich — projected to finish on 60.6 points, from 12 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.5%, finishes top two 1.4%, bottom three 5.9%.
16. Wrexham — projected to finish on 59.2 points, from 14 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3%, finishes top two 0.8%, bottom three 5.8%.
17. Lincoln — projected to finish on 56.9 points, from 15 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top two 0.3%, bottom three 11.9%.
18. Bristol City — projected to finish on 56 points, from 15 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.1%, bottom three 9.6%.
19. Bolton — projected to finish on 55.7 points, from 14 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.1%, bottom three 11%.
20. Charlton — projected to finish on 48.4 points, from 14 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 30.8%.
21. Derby — projected to finish on 48.1 points, from 7 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 31.7%.
22. Burnley — projected to finish on 45 points, from 8 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 45.3%.
23. Watford — projected to finish on 43.1 points, from 11 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 54.3%.
24. Preston — projected to finish on 36.5 points, from 5 after 12 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 79.2%.

Top scorers

1. W. Lankshear (Middlesbrough) — 11 goals.
2. A. Guðjohnsen (Blackburn) — 8 goals, 1 assist.
3. C. Larin (Southampton) — 7 goals.
4. J. Bowen (West Ham) — 6 goals, 5 assists.
5. J. Moylan (Cardiff) — 6 goals, 3 assists.
6. Fer López (Wolves) — 5 goals, 3 assists.
7. K. Moore (Wrexham) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
8. P. Bamford (Sheffield Utd) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
9. K. Mavropanos (West Ham) — 5 goals.
10. M. Touré (Norwich) — 5 goals.
11. L. Millar (Birmingham) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
12. O. Afolayan (Blackburn) — 4 goals, 2 assists.
13. T. Campbell (Charlton) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
14. A. Heggebø (West Brom) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
15. A. Idah (Swansea) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
16. S. Dalby (Bolton) — 4 goals.
17. L. Dykes (Millwall) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
18. A. Priske (Birmingham) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
19. I. Price (West Brom) — 4 goals, 2 assists.
20. F. Azaz (Southampton) — 3 goals, 5 assists.