Millwall
vs
QPR
Championship prediction
Our model says: Millwall 2–1 QPR
The model makes it 42% Millwall, 27% draw, 31% QPR — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Millwall 1.55, QPR 1.25.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Millwall's rating is built from 63 Championship matches and QPR's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Millwall are 16th on 18 points from 15 games; QPR are 8th on 24 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Millwall have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to West Brom.
- QPR have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Lincoln.
- Last 6 meetings: Millwall 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended QPR 1–1 Millwall.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Millwall vs QPR
Has the model earned this number?
Millwall at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Millwall vs QPR
Millwall
Championship
- L0-3away to West Brom7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Birmingham3 November 2026
- W4-1Derby31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Portsmouth24 October 2026
- D2-2Lincoln17 October 2026
QPR
Championship
- W2-1Lincoln7 November 2026
- D1-1Burnley3 November 2026
- L1-4away to Southampton31 October 2026
- W5-0Swansea24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026
What these results say
- Millwall conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for QPR had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Millwall vs QPR
- 8 August 2026QPR 1–1 MillwallLeague Cup
- 18 April 2026Millwall 2–0 QPRChampionship
- 18 October 2025QPR 1–2 MillwallChampionship
- 1 February 2025Millwall 2–1 QPRChampionship
- 21 September 2024QPR 1–1 MillwallChampionship
- 20 January 2024QPR 2–0 MillwallChampionship
Leading scorers: Millwall and QPR
Millwall
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
QPR
GoalsAssists
- R. Kone51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour QPR (8th, with Millwall 16th), while our numbers lean to Millwall. Millwall rate 0.76 in attack and 1.37 in defence, QPR 0.76 and 1.34 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Millwall a 0.6% chance of the title and QPR 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Millwall v QPR has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Millwall's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Millwall win42%▼ −2
- Draw27%=
- QPR win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millwall the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Millwall against 1.25 for QPR. Millwall's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.34 for QPR.
How the model reaches 42% for Millwall to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Millwall to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Millwall's ratings take away 1 point and QPR's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level43%+1
- Millwall's ratings42%−1
- QPR's ratings42%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Millwall at home · QPR away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
MillwallQPR
Millwall are 16th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 16th so far); QPR are 8th after 15 (between 1st and 11th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Millwall 15, QPR 15.
Millwall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); QPR have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Millwall
- at Stoke City25 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- vs Burnley28 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
- at Watford5 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
- vs Sheffield Utd8 Dec · Championshipwin 42%
- at Wolves12 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
QPR
- at Norwich24 Nov · Championshipwin 25%
- vs Sheffield Utd28 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
- at Stoke City5 Dec · Championshipwin 29%
- vs Wolves8 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Watford12 Dec · Championshipwin 52%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.