Portsmouth
vs
West Ham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Portsmouth 1–2 West Ham
The model makes it 34% Portsmouth, 26% draw, 40% West Ham — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.50, West Ham 1.65.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to West Ham: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Portsmouth's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and West Ham's from 15, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Portsmouth are 11th on 22 points from 15 games; West Ham are 9th on 23 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Portsmouth have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Stoke City.
- West Ham are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Blackburn.
- Last 3 meetings: West Ham 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended West Ham 3–1 Portsmouth.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Portsmouth vs West Ham
Has the model earned this number?
West Ham at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Portsmouth vs West Ham
Portsmouth
Championship
- L1-2Stoke City7 November 2026
- W3-1Swansea3 November 2026
- D0-0away to Burnley31 October 2026
- W2-1Millwall24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Wolves20 October 2026
West Ham
Championship
- L1-2away to Blackburn7 November 2026
- D3-3away to Cardiff4 November 2026
- L1-3West Brom31 October 2026
- L2-3Southampton24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Swansea17 October 2026
What these results say
- Portsmouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Portsmouth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Portsmouth.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- West Ham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- West Ham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
West Ham
Chance to finish in the top two · 23% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs West Ham
- 8 August 2026West Ham 3–1 PortsmouthLeague Cup
- 14 January 2012Portsmouth 0–1 West HamChampionship
- 10 September 2011West Ham 4–3 PortsmouthChampionship
Leading scorers: Portsmouth and West Ham
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen77
- K. Mavropanos50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portsmouth a 0.7% chance of the title and West Ham 10.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Portsmouth against 1.65 for West Ham. Portsmouth's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/1.47 for West Ham.
How the model reaches 40% for West Ham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for West Ham to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Portsmouth's ratings add 4 points and West Ham's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Portsmouth's ratings34%+4
- West Ham's ratings40%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Portsmouth at home · West Ham away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
PortsmouthWest Ham
Portsmouth are 11th after 15 Championship matches (between 8th and 22nd so far); West Ham are 9th after 15 (between 1st and 19th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Portsmouth 15, West Ham 15.
West Ham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Portsmouth have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Portsmouth
- at Wrexham28 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- vs West Brom5 Dec · Championshipwin 35%
- at Preston9 Dec · Championshipwin 41%
- vs Birmingham12 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
West Ham
- vs Stoke City28 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
- at Sheffield Utd4 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
- vs Middlesbrough8 Dec · Championshipwin 44%
- vs Bristol City12 Dec · Championshipwin 62%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.