Watford
vs
Blackburn
Championship prediction
Our model says: Watford 0–1 Blackburn
The model makes it 33% Watford, 31% draw, 36% Blackburn — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Watford 1.08, Blackburn 1.13.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Watford and Blackburn are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Watford's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Blackburn's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Watford are 20th on 15 points from 15 games; Blackburn are 13th on 21 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Watford have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Middlesbrough.
- Blackburn have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to West Ham.
- Last 6 meetings: Blackburn 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Blackburn 1–1 Watford.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Watford vs Blackburn
Has the model earned this number?
Blackburn at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Watford vs Blackburn
Watford
Championship
- D0-0Middlesbrough7 November 2026
- W1-0Lincoln3 November 2026
- L2-3away to Norwich31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves24 October 2026
- W2-0Charlton17 October 2026
Blackburn
Championship
- W2-1West Ham7 November 2026
- L1-2Stoke City3 November 2026
- L0-4away to Swansea31 October 2026
- W2-0Wrexham24 October 2026
- L2-3away to West Brom17 October 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Watford had two goals or fewer.
- Blackburn scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Blackburn had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Watford
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Watford vs Blackburn
- 24 January 2026Blackburn 1–1 WatfordChampionship
- 13 September 2025Watford 0–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 26 April 2025Blackburn 2–1 WatfordChampionship
- 26 October 2024Watford 1–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 23 December 2023Blackburn 1–2 WatfordChampionship
- 27 August 2023Watford 0–1 BlackburnChampionship
Leading scorers: Watford and Blackburn
Watford
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen101
- O. Afolayan52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Watford a 0% chance of the title and Blackburn 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Blackburn the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Watford against 1.13 for Blackburn. Watford's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.33 for Blackburn.
How the model reaches 36% for Blackburn to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Blackburn to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Watford's ratings add 3 points and Blackburn's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Watford's ratings32%+3
- Blackburn's ratings36%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Watford at home · Blackburn away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
WatfordBlackburn
Watford are 20th after 15 Championship matches (between 6th and 22nd so far); Blackburn are 13th after 15 (between 1st and 16th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Watford 15, Blackburn 15.
Blackburn score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Watford have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Watford
- at Derby28 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
- vs Millwall5 Dec · Championshipwin 31%
- at Birmingham8 Dec · Championshipwin 15%
- at QPR12 Dec · Championshipwin 21%
Blackburn
- vs Charlton28 Nov · Championshipwin 47%
- at Bolton5 Dec · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Norwich8 Dec · Championshipwin 33%
- vs Derby12 Dec · Championshipwin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.