Europa League predictions & fixtures

Thursday 15 October — 18 matches

16:45 UTC Lyon vs Crystal Palace — model 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.70 · 4.55.
16:45 UTC AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — model 55% / 25% / 20%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.82 · 4.00 · 5.00.
16:45 UTC Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen — model 34% / 28% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.57 · 2.63.
16:45 UTC Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan — model 28% / 29% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 3.45 · 2.33.
16:45 UTC Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom — model 59% / 24% / 17%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.69 · 4.17 · 5.88.
16:45 UTC Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad — model 57% / 24% / 19%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.75 · 4.17 · 5.26.
16:45 UTC Celje vs Omonia Nicosia — model 25% / 28% / 47%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.00 · 3.57 · 2.13.
16:45 UTC Torreense vs Sunderland — model 32% / 30% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.33 · 2.63.
19:00 UTC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz — model 55% / 26% / 19%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.82 · 3.85 · 5.26.
19:00 UTC Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus — model 38% / 31% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.23 · 3.23.
19:00 UTC Rennes vs OFI — model 55% / 24% / 21%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.82 · 4.17 · 4.76.
19:00 UTC 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş — model 39% / 27% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 3.70 · 2.94.
19:00 UTC Benfica vs Celtic — model 64% / 21% / 15%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.56 · 4.76 · 6.67.
19:00 UTC Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia — model 64% / 22% / 14%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.56 · 4.55 · 7.14.
19:00 UTC NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia — model 38% / 29% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.45 · 3.03.
19:00 UTC Celta Vigo vs Juventus — model 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.33 · 2.50.
19:00 UTC Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht — model 42% / 27% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.38 · 3.70 · 3.23.
19:00 UTC Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen — model 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.78 · 3.45 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach

Last round: the model's hits and misses

16–17 September: the model called the result of 9 of 18 matches, 1 of them to the exact score.

Ararat-Armenia 1–4 Sparta Praha — the model said 19% / 24% / 57%, most likely 0-2: result correct.
Omonia Nicosia 1–0 Celta Vigo — the model said 32% / 31% / 37%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
AC Milan 0–2 Benfica — the model said 33% / 27% / 40%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Anderlecht 1–2 Lyon — the model said 41% / 31% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Celje — the model said 71% / 19% / 10%, most likely 3-0: result correct.
Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–0 Dinamo Zagreb — the model said 42% / 28% / 30%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
Olympiakos Piraeus 2–1 Jagiellonia — the model said 48% / 28% / 24%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
Sturm Graz 0–0 Rennes — the model said 27% / 28% / 45%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Sunderland 1–0 AZ Alkmaar — the model said 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
Levski Sofia 0–1 Red Bull Salzburg — the model said 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
OFI 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim — the model said 29% / 28% / 43%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
Beşiktaş 4–1 Marseille — the model said 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Celtic 1–3 Ferencvarosi TC — the model said 48% / 28% / 24%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Crystal Palace 4–0 Lech Poznan — the model said 51% / 25% / 24%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
Juventus 5–0 NEC Nijmegen — the model said 61% / 23% / 16%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Lillestrom 1–2 Torreense — the model said 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Plzen 0–3 Union St. Gilloise — the model said 31% / 27% / 42%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
Real Sociedad 1–2 Bournemouth — the model said 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 2-1: result missed.