League Stage - 5 · 26 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League prediction

epet ARENA, Prague

Our model says: Sparta Praha 1–0 AZ Alkmaar

The model makes it 39% Sparta Praha, 29% draw, 32% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.39, AZ Alkmaar 1.19.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Sparta Praha's rating is built from 48 Czech Liga matches and AZ Alkmaar's from 46 Eredivisie matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 18 matches for Sparta Praha, 19 for AZ Alkmaar. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.

Key facts

  • Sparta Praha are 22nd on 4 points from 4 games; AZ Alkmaar are 14th on 6 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
  • Sparta Praha are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Bournemouth.
  • AZ Alkmaar have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Juventus.
  • Last 2 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 March 2026, ended Sparta Praha 0–4 AZ Alkmaar.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar

53%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sparta Praha win Draw AZ Alkmaar win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Sparta Praha first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sparta Praha at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar

Sparta Praha

UEFA Europa League

  • L1-3Bournemouth5 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus22 October 2026
  • D1-1Lillestrom15 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Ararat-Armenia16 September 2026

AZ Alkmaar

UEFA Europa League

  • L1-2Juventus5 November 2026
  • W4-0away to Ararat-Armenia22 October 2026
  • W2-1Hapoel Beer Sheva15 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Sunderland16 September 2026

What these results say

  • Sparta Praha conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sparta Praha failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sparta Praha scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AZ Alkmaar conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for AZ Alkmaar had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Sparta Praha41126604
14AZ Alkmaar420274+36

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar

  • 19 March 2026Sparta Praha 0–4 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 12 March 2026AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and AZ Alkmaar

Sparta Praha

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

AZ Alkmaar

GoalsAssists

  • M. Meerdink30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AZ Alkmaar (14th, with Sparta Praha 22nd), while our numbers lean to Sparta Praha. Sparta Praha rate 1.11 in attack and 0.84 in defence, AZ Alkmaar 0.94 and 0.91 (lower is better in defence), so Sparta Praha have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sparta Praha AZ Alkmaar
1.11 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.94
0.84 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.91
1.39 Model expected goals (this match) 1.19

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sparta Praha the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Sparta Praha against 1.19 for AZ Alkmaar. Sparta Praha's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.91 for AZ Alkmaar.

Sparta Praha carry a model rating of 6.99 against 6.87 for AZ Alkmaar. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Sparta Praha to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sparta Praha to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sparta Praha's ratings take away 2 points and AZ Alkmaar's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage44%+7
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Sparta Praha's ratings41%−2
  5. AZ Alkmaar's ratings39%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Sparta PrahaAZ Alkmaar
14Matches12
7W 3D 4LRecord7W 2D 3L
26 1.9 per gameGoals scored24 2.0 per game
14 1.0 per gameGoals conceded16 1.3 per game
6 of 14Clean sheets3 of 12
4 of 14Failed to score3 of 12
2 of 3Penalties scored2 of 3
33 2.4 per gameYellow cards17 1.4 per game
4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Sparta Praha at home · AZ Alkmaar away

6Played6
5W 0D 1LRecord3W 1D 2L
16–6Goals for – against11–8
2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, this season — Sparta Praha in the Czech Liga, AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Sparta Praha 14 in the Czech Liga, AZ Alkmaar 12 in the Eredivisie.

Sparta Praha scored 536632
AZ Alkmaar conceded 431313
AZ Alkmaar scored 324456
Sparta Praha conceded 321522

AZ Alkmaar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Sparta Praha have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Sparta Praha

  • at Zlin29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 65%
  • vs Mlada Boleslav5 Dec · Czech Ligawin 54%
  • at Red Bull Salzburg10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 37%
  • at Teplice14 Dec · Czech Ligawin 51%

AZ Alkmaar

  • at PEC Zwolle29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 52%
  • vs PSV Eindhoven5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 29%
  • vs Sturm Graz10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 55%
  • vs NEC Nijmegen13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 51%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.