Crystal Palace
vs
1899 Hoffenheim
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Crystal Palace 2–1 1899 Hoffenheim
The model makes it 42% Crystal Palace, 25% draw, 33% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.80, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.52.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Crystal Palace's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and 1899 Hoffenheim's from 40 Bundesliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.
Key facts
- Crystal Palace are 15th on 3 points from 2 games; 1899 Hoffenheim are 30th on 0 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Crystal Palace have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Brighton.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Crystal Palace at 42% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Crystal Palace vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Crystal Palace
- L2-3away to Lyon15 October 2026
- W4-0Lech Poznan17 September 2026
1899 Hoffenheim
- L2-3Beşiktaş15 October 2026
- L0-2away to OFI17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 3 |
| 30 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and 1899 Hoffenheim
Crystal Palace
GoalsAssists
- Yeremy Pino20
1899 Hoffenheim
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Crystal Palace carry a model rating of 6.73 against 6.8 for 1899 Hoffenheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.52 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Crystal Palace rate 0.92 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.06 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Crystal Palace the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Crystal Palace against 1.52 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Crystal Palace's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.18 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Crystal Palace at home · 1899 Hoffenheim away
League matches only, this season — Crystal Palace in the Premier League, 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Crystal Palace 7 in the Premier League, 1899 Hoffenheim 6 in the Bundesliga.
Crystal Palace score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); 1899 Hoffenheim have let in 2 there.
1899 Hoffenheim score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Crystal Palace have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Crystal Palace
- vs Liverpool8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- at Coventry21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
1899 Hoffenheim
- vs FC Schalke 048 Nov · Bundesligawin 44%
- at Eintracht Frankfurt21 Nov · Bundesligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.