Hapoel Beer Sheva
vs
OFI
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2–1 OFI
The model makes it 51% Hapoel Beer Sheva, 24% draw, 25% OFI — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hapoel Beer Sheva 2.08, OFI 1.32.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Hapoel Beer Sheva's rating is built from 43 Israeli Ligat Ha'al matches and OFI's from 39 Greek Super League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.
Key facts
- Hapoel Beer Sheva are 25th on 1 point from 2 games; OFI are 18th on 3 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Hapoel Beer Sheva are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Hapoel Jerusalem.
- OFI are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to Kalamata.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 51% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 1,080 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hapoel Beer Sheva vs OFI
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- L1-2away to AZ Alkmaar15 October 2026
- D0-0Dinamo Zagreb16 September 2026
OFI
- L1-2away to Rennes15 October 2026
- W2-01899 Hoffenheim17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | OFI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Beer Sheva carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.57 for OFI. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.08 goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.32 for OFI. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Beer Sheva rate 0.83 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFI rate 0.85 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour OFI, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Beer Sheva the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Hapoel Beer Sheva against 1.32 for OFI. Hapoel Beer Sheva's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.51 for OFI.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hapoel Beer Sheva at home · OFI away
League matches only, this season — Hapoel Beer Sheva in the Ligat Ha'al, OFI in the Super League 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Hapoel Beer Sheva 7 in the Ligat Ha'al, OFI 7 in the Super League 1.
OFI score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Hapoel Beer Sheva have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- vs Hapoel Tel Aviv7 Nov · Ligat Ha'alwin 38%
- at Beşiktaş26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 19%
OFI
- vs Atromitos8 Nov · Super League 1win 42%
- at Panathinaikos22 Nov · Super League 1win 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.