Torreense
vs
Celtic
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Torreense 2–1 Celtic
The model makes it 38% Torreense, 27% draw, 35% Celtic — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Torreense 1.46, Celtic 1.38.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Torreense and Celtic are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Torreense's rating is built from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Celtic's from 51 Scottish Premiership matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 4 matches for Torreense, 18 for Celtic. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Torreense are 19th on 6 points from 4 games; Celtic are 32nd on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Torreense have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Ararat-Armenia.
- Celtic have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Beşiktaş.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Torreense vs Celtic
Has the model earned this number?
Torreense at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Torreense vs Celtic
Torreense
UEFA Europa League
- W3-2Ararat-Armenia5 November 2026
- L1-4away to Ferencvarosi TC22 October 2026
- L1-2Sunderland15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lillestrom17 September 2026
Celtic
UEFA Europa League
- W3-2Beşiktaş5 November 2026
- L1-2Celta Vigo22 October 2026
- L1-4away to Benfica15 October 2026
- L1-3Ferencvarosi TC17 September 2026
What these results say
- Torreense scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Torreense conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Torreense had three goals or more.
- Celtic scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Celtic conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Celtic had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Torreense and Celtic
Torreense
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torreense the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Torreense against 1.38 for Celtic. Torreense's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.09 for Celtic.
How the model reaches 38% for Torreense to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Torreense to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Torreense's ratings take away 3 points and Celtic's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Torreense's ratings41%−3
- Celtic's ratings38%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Torreense at home · Celtic away
League matches only, this season — Torreense in the Segunda Liga, Celtic in the Premiership; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Torreense 10 in the Segunda Liga, Celtic 13 in the Premiership.
Torreense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Celtic have let in 0 there.
Celtic score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Torreense have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Torreense
- at Academica30 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 27%
- vs Sporting CP B6 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Real Sociedad10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 10%
- at Felgueiras 193214 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- vs Feirense20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 49%
Celtic
- at Heart of Midlothian29 Nov · Premiershipwin 45%
- at Dundee2 Dec · Premiershipwin 51%
- vs St Johnstone5 Dec · Premiershipwin 69%
- at Omonia Nicosia10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.