1899 Hoffenheim
vs
Sturm Graz
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: 1899 Hoffenheim 2–0 Sturm Graz
The model makes it 61% 1899 Hoffenheim, 23% draw, 16% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.10, Sturm Graz 0.85.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: 1899 Hoffenheim are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. 1899 Hoffenheim's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and Sturm Graz's from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 4 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim, 18 for Sturm Graz. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- 1899 Hoffenheim are 23rd on 4 points from 4 games; Sturm Graz are 24th on 4 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Crystal Palace.
- Sturm Graz have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Celje.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz
Has the model earned this number?
1899 Hoffenheim at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz
1899 Hoffenheim
UEFA Europa League
- D1-1away to Crystal Palace5 November 2026
- W3-0Lyon22 October 2026
- L2-3Beşiktaş15 October 2026
- L0-2away to OFI17 September 2026
Sturm Graz
UEFA Europa League
- L2-3Celje5 November 2026
- W1-0Marseille22 October 2026
- L0-3away to Bournemouth15 October 2026
- D0-0Rennes16 September 2026
What these results say
- 1899 Hoffenheim failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sturm Graz failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: 1899 Hoffenheim and Sturm Graz
1899 Hoffenheim
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim against 0.85 for Sturm Graz. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.23 for Sturm Graz.
How the model reaches 61% for 1899 Hoffenheim to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for 1899 Hoffenheim to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, 1899 Hoffenheim's ratings add 11 points and Sturm Graz's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 61%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- 1899 Hoffenheim's ratings54%+11
- Sturm Graz's ratings61%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
1899 Hoffenheim at home · Sturm Graz away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: 1899 Hoffenheim 9, Sturm Graz 12.
1899 Hoffenheim score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Sturm Graz have let in 2 there.
Sturm Graz score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); 1899 Hoffenheim have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
1899 Hoffenheim
- vs FC Augsburg29 Nov · Bundesligawin 45%
- at SC Freiburg5 Dec · Bundesligawin 22%
- at Anderlecht10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 30%
- vs Bayern München13 Dec · Bundesligawin 17%
Sturm Graz
- vs WSG Wattens29 Nov · Bundesligawin 61%
- vs Austria Vienna6 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
- at AZ Alkmaar10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 20%
- at Grazer AK13 Dec · Bundesligawin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.