Levski Sofia
vs
Jagiellonia
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Levski Sofia 1–0 Jagiellonia
The model makes it 54% Levski Sofia, 25% draw, 21% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 1.86, Jagiellonia 0.95.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
Edge to Levski Sofia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Levski Sofia's rating is built from 46 Bulgarian First League matches and Jagiellonia's from 44 Ekstraklasa matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.
Key facts
- Levski Sofia are 24th on 1 point from 2 games; Jagiellonia are 17th on 3 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Levski Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Cherno More Varna.
- Jagiellonia are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Zaglebie Lubin.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 54% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 1,080 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia
Levski Sofia
- D1-1away to NEC Nijmegen15 October 2026
- L0-1Red Bull Salzburg17 September 2026
Jagiellonia
- W3-1Ararat-Armenia15 October 2026
- L1-2away to Olympiakos Piraeus16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Levski Sofia carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.63 for Jagiellonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Levski Sofia and 0.95 for Jagiellonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Levski Sofia rate 0.90 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jagiellonia rate 0.81 and 1.25.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jagiellonia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 0.95 for Jagiellonia. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.25 for Jagiellonia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Levski Sofia's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Jagiellonia's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Levski Sofia at home · Jagiellonia away
League matches only, this season — Levski Sofia in the First League, Jagiellonia in the Ekstraklasa. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Levski Sofia 10 in the First League, Jagiellonia 10 in the Ekstraklasa.
Levski Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Jagiellonia have let in 5 there.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Levski Sofia have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Levski Sofia
- at Dunav Ruse7 Nov · First Leaguewin 66%
Jagiellonia
- vs GKS Katowice7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 38%
- at Cracovia Krakow21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.