NEC Nijmegen
vs
Rennes
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Rennes
The model makes it 35% NEC Nijmegen, 26% draw, 39% Rennes — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.53, Rennes 1.67.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Rennes: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. NEC Nijmegen's rating is built from 46 Eredivisie matches and Rennes's from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 8 matches for NEC Nijmegen, 4 for Rennes. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- NEC Nijmegen are 12th on 7 points from 4 games; Rennes are 17th on 6 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- NEC Nijmegen are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Omonia Nicosia.
- Rennes are unbeaten in their last 4 games (1 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Olympiakos Piraeus.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes
Has the model earned this number?
Rennes at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes
NEC Nijmegen
UEFA Europa League
- W3-1Omonia Nicosia5 November 2026
- W4-2away to Dinamo Zagreb22 October 2026
- D1-1Levski Sofia15 October 2026
- L0-5away to Juventus17 September 2026
Rennes
UEFA Europa League
- D0-0Olympiakos Piraeus4 November 2026
- D2-2away to Juventus22 October 2026
- W2-1OFI15 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sturm Graz16 September 2026
What these results say
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for NEC Nijmegen had three goals or more.
- Rennes went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Rennes failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Rennes
NEC Nijmegen
GoalsAssists
- T. Chery31
- B. Linssen31
Rennes
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NEC Nijmegen (12th, with Rennes 17th), while our numbers lean to Rennes. Rennes rate 1.23 in attack and 1.29 in defence, NEC Nijmegen 0.84 and 1.10 (lower is better in defence), so Rennes have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rennes the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.67 for Rennes. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.29 for Rennes.
How the model reaches 39% for Rennes to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rennes to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, NEC Nijmegen's ratings add 4 points and Rennes's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level30%+1
- NEC Nijmegen's ratings34%+4
- Rennes's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
NEC Nijmegen at home · Rennes away
League matches only, this season — NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie, Rennes in the Ligue 1; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: NEC Nijmegen 12 in the Eredivisie, Rennes 10 in the Ligue 1.
Rennes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); NEC Nijmegen have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
NEC Nijmegen
- vs Twente29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 25%
- at Sparta Rotterdam5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 42%
- at Ararat-Armenia10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 62%
- at AZ Alkmaar13 Dec · Eredivisiewin 24%
Rennes
- at Toulouse29 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- vs Stade Brestois 296 Dec · Ligue 1win 45%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 50%
- vs Monaco13 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.