Rennes
vs
Olympiakos Piraeus
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Rennes 1–0 Olympiakos Piraeus
The model makes it 38% Rennes, 28% draw, 34% Olympiakos Piraeus — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rennes 1.37, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.25.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 934 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Rennes's rating is built from 41 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Olympiakos Piraeus's from 39 Greek Super League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.
Key facts
- Rennes are 13th on 4 points from 2 games; Olympiakos Piraeus are 10th on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Rennes have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat away to Paris FC.
- Olympiakos Piraeus are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Panetolikos.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rennes at 38% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 3,406 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rennes vs Olympiakos Piraeus
Rennes
- W2-1OFI15 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sturm Graz16 September 2026
Olympiakos Piraeus
- W1-0away to Marseille15 October 2026
- W2-1Jagiellonia16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rennes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rennes carry a model rating of 6.87 against 6.99 for Olympiakos Piraeus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Rennes and 1.25 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rennes rate 1.20 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Olympiakos Piraeus rate 0.86 and 0.69.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Olympiakos Piraeus, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rennes the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Rennes against 1.25 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Rennes's attack/defence rating is 1.2/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.69 for Olympiakos Piraeus.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rennes at home · Olympiakos Piraeus away
League matches only, this season — Rennes in the Ligue 1, Olympiakos Piraeus in the Super League 1. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Rennes 7 in the Ligue 1, Olympiakos Piraeus 7 in the Super League 1.
Rennes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Olympiakos Piraeus have let in 0 there.
Olympiakos Piraeus score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Rennes have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Rennes
- vs Lille8 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- at Lorient22 Nov · Ligue 1win 34%
Olympiakos Piraeus
- vs PAOK8 Nov · Super League 1win 41%
- vs Iraklis 190822 Nov · Super League 1win 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.