Lillestrom
vs
Plzen
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Lillestrom 1–2 Plzen
The model makes it 30% Lillestrom, 27% draw, 43% Plzen — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lillestrom 1.30, Plzen 1.65.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Edge to Plzen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Lillestrom's rating is built from 23 Eliteserien matches and Plzen's from 46 Czech Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.
Key facts
- Lillestrom are 23rd on 1 point from 2 games; Plzen are 31st on 0 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Lillestrom have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Sandefjord.
- Plzen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to FK Jablonec.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lillestrom vs Plzen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Plzen at 43% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lillestrom vs Plzen
Lillestrom
- D1-1away to Sparta Praha15 October 2026
- L1-2Torreense17 September 2026
Plzen
- L1-2away to Ferencvarosi TC15 October 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Lillestrom | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
| 31 | Plzen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Lillestrom and Plzen
Lillestrom
GoalsAssists
- T. Lehne Olsen20
Plzen
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Lillestrom carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.87 for Plzen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Lillestrom and 1.65 for Plzen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lillestrom rate 0.68 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Plzen rate 1.18 and 1.15.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lillestrom, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Plzen the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Lillestrom against 1.65 for Plzen. Lillestrom's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.18/1.15 for Plzen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lillestrom at home · Plzen away
League matches only, this season — Lillestrom in the Eliteserien, Plzen in the Czech Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lillestrom 23 in the Eliteserien, Plzen 11 in the Czech Liga.
Lillestrom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Plzen have let in 5 there.
Plzen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Lillestrom have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Lillestrom
- vs Aalesund8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 49%
- at Sarpsborg 08 FF22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 34%
Plzen
- vs Sparta Praha8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
- at Bohemians 190521 Nov · Czech Ligawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.