NEC Nijmegen
vs
Omonia Nicosia
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: NEC Nijmegen 0–1 Omonia Nicosia
The model makes it 28% NEC Nijmegen, 27% draw, 45% Omonia Nicosia — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.15, Omonia Nicosia 1.61.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
One-sided: Omonia Nicosia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. NEC Nijmegen's rating is built from 43 Eredivisie matches and Omonia Nicosia's from 42 Cypriot First Division matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.
Key facts
- NEC Nijmegen are 27th on 1 point from 2 games; Omonia Nicosia are 6th on 6 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
- NEC Nijmegen have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Fortuna Sittard.
- Omonia Nicosia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Olympiakos.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia Nicosia at 45% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia
NEC Nijmegen
- D1-1Levski Sofia15 October 2026
- L0-5away to Juventus17 September 2026
Omonia Nicosia
- W3-0away to Celje15 October 2026
- W1-0Celta Vigo16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
| 6 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Omonia Nicosia
NEC Nijmegen
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Omonia Nicosia
GoalsAssists
- L. Diony40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NEC Nijmegen carry a model rating of 6.72 against 7.04 for Omonia Nicosia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.61 for Omonia Nicosia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEC Nijmegen rate 0.87 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Omonia Nicosia rate 1.17 and 0.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia Nicosia the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.61 for Omonia Nicosia. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.8 for Omonia Nicosia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often NEC Nijmegen's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Omonia Nicosia's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NEC Nijmegen at home · Omonia Nicosia away
League matches only, this season — NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie, Omonia Nicosia in the 1. Division. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: NEC Nijmegen 9 in the Eredivisie, Omonia Nicosia 6 in the 1. Division.
Omonia Nicosia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); NEC Nijmegen have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
NEC Nijmegen
- at Utrecht8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- vs PSV Eindhoven21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 24%
Omonia Nicosia
- at Anorthosis8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 63%
- vs Apoel Nicosia21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.