League Stage - 5 · 26 November 2026, 17:45 UTC

Red Bull Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia UEFA Europa League prediction

Red Bull Arena, Salzburg

Our model says: Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 Ararat-Armenia

The model makes it 68% Red Bull Salzburg, 20% draw, 12% Ararat-Armenia — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Red Bull Salzburg 2.47, Ararat-Armenia 0.77.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Red Bull Salzburg are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Red Bull Salzburg's rating is built from 44 Austrian Bundesliga matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; Ararat-Armenia's from its last 6 matches. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 20 matches for Red Bull Salzburg, 16 for Ararat-Armenia. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.

Key facts

  • Red Bull Salzburg are 26th on 4 points from 4 games; Ararat-Armenia are bottom on 0 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
  • Red Bull Salzburg are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Anderlecht.
  • Ararat-Armenia have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Torreense.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Red Bull Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia

49%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Red Bull Salzburg win Draw Ararat-Armenia win
  1. 2–012%
  2. 3–010%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 1–18%
  6. 3–18%
  7. 4–06%

Scores read Red Bull Salzburg first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Red Bull Salzburg at 68%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Red Bull Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia

Red Bull Salzburg

UEFA Europa League

  • L0-2away to Anderlecht5 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Celje22 October 2026
  • L0-4AC Milan15 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Levski Sofia17 September 2026

Ararat-Armenia

UEFA Europa League

  • L2-3away to Torreense5 November 2026
  • L0-4AZ Alkmaar22 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Jagiellonia15 October 2026
  • L1-4Sparta Praha16 September 2026

What these results say

  • Red Bull Salzburg failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Red Bull Salzburg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Ararat-Armenia did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Ararat-Armenia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Ararat-Armenia had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
26Red Bull Salzburg411238-54
36Ararat-Armenia4004414-100

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Red Bull Salzburg Ararat-Armenia
0.98 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.5
1.02 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.12
2.47 Model expected goals (this match) 0.77

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg against 0.77 for Ararat-Armenia. Red Bull Salzburg's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.12 for Ararat-Armenia.

How the model reaches 68% for Red Bull Salzburg to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Red Bull Salzburg to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Red Bull Salzburg's ratings add 13 points and Ararat-Armenia's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 68%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage44%+7
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Red Bull Salzburg's ratings56%+13
  5. Ararat-Armenia's ratings68%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Red Bull Salzburg

  • vs Lask Linz29 Nov · Bundesligawin 53%
  • at SCR Altach4 Dec · Bundesligawin 60%
  • vs Sparta Praha10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 35%
  • vs Wolfsberger AC13 Dec · Bundesligawin 78%

Ararat-Armenia

  • vs NEC Nijmegen10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 16%
  • vs Celje21 Jan · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 17%
  • at AC Milan28 Jan · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 2%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.