Marseille
vs
Levski Sofia
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Marseille 1–0 Levski Sofia
The model makes it 60% Marseille, 25% draw, 15% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 1.67, 4.00 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Marseille 1.79, Levski Sofia 0.62.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Marseille are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Marseille's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Levski Sofia's from 49 Bulgarian First League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 12 matches for Marseille, 20 for Levski Sofia. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Marseille are 31st on 3 points from 4 games; Levski Sofia are 10th on 7 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Marseille have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Bayer Leverkusen.
- Levski Sofia are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Jagiellonia.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Marseille vs Levski Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
Marseille at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Marseille vs Levski Sofia
Marseille
UEFA Europa League
- W1-0away to Bayer Leverkusen5 November 2026
- L0-1away to Sturm Graz22 October 2026
- L0-1Olympiakos Piraeus15 October 2026
- L1-4away to Beşiktaş17 September 2026
Levski Sofia
UEFA Europa League
- W1-0Jagiellonia5 November 2026
- W2-1away to Plzen22 October 2026
- D1-1away to NEC Nijmegen15 October 2026
- L0-1Red Bull Salzburg17 September 2026
What these results say
- Marseille failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Marseille conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Marseille had two goals or fewer.
- Levski Sofia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Levski Sofia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Levski Sofia had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Marseille | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Levski Sofia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Levski Sofia (10th, with Marseille 31st), while our numbers lean to Marseille. Marseille rate 1.30 in attack and 0.98 in defence, Levski Sofia 0.82 and 1.04 (lower is better in defence), so Marseille have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Marseille the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Marseille against 0.62 for Levski Sofia. Marseille's attack/defence rating is 1.3/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.04 for Levski Sofia.
How the model reaches 60% for Marseille to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Marseille to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Marseille's ratings add 12 points and Levski Sofia's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level40%−4
- Marseille's ratings52%+12
- Levski Sofia's ratings60%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Marseille at home · Levski Sofia away
League matches only, this season — Marseille in the Ligue 1, Levski Sofia in the First League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Marseille 10 in the Ligue 1, Levski Sofia 13 in the First League.
Marseille score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Levski Sofia have let in 2 there.
Levski Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Marseille have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Marseille
- at Auxerre29 Nov · Ligue 1win 54%
- vs Nice6 Dec · Ligue 1win 56%
- vs Celta Vigo10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 52%
- at Lyon13 Dec · Ligue 1win 36%
Levski Sofia
- at Septemvri Sofia29 Nov · First Leaguewin 65%
- vs Ludogorets3 Dec · First Leaguewin 40%
- at Lokomotiv Plovdiv5 Dec · First Leaguewin 55%
- vs Lillestrom10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.