Plzen
vs
Benfica
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Plzen 0–1 Benfica
The model makes it 22% Plzen, 27% draw, 51% Benfica — fair odds of 4.55, 3.70 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Plzen 0.93, Benfica 1.67.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Benfica are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Plzen's rating is built from 49 Czech Liga matches and Benfica's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 20 matches for Plzen, 24 for Benfica. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Plzen are 30th on 3 points from 4 games; Benfica are top on 12 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Plzen have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Lillestrom.
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Lech Poznan.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Plzen vs Benfica
Has the model earned this number?
Benfica at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Plzen vs Benfica
Plzen
UEFA Europa League
- W1-0away to Lillestrom5 November 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia22 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ferencvarosi TC15 October 2026
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise17 September 2026
Benfica
UEFA Europa League
- W3-1Lech Poznan5 November 2026
- W4-1away to Omonia Nicosia22 October 2026
- W4-1Celtic15 October 2026
- W2-0away to AC Milan16 September 2026
What these results say
- Plzen failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Plzen scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Plzen conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Benfica won every one of these 4 matches.
- Benfica scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Benfica conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Plzen and Benfica
Plzen
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- G. Prestianni22
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Plzen against 1.67 for Benfica. Plzen's attack/defence rating is 1.18/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.62/0.78 for Benfica.
How the model reaches 51% for Benfica to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Benfica to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Plzen's ratings add 10 points and Benfica's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Plzen's ratings39%+10
- Benfica's ratings51%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Plzen at home · Benfica away
League matches only, this season — Plzen in the Czech Liga, Benfica in the Primeira Liga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Plzen 14 in the Czech Liga, Benfica 11 in the Primeira Liga.
Plzen score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Benfica have let in 5 there.
Benfica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Plzen have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Plzen
- at Zbrojovka Brno29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 55%
- vs Teplice6 Dec · Czech Ligawin 57%
- at Bournemouth10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
- at Zlin14 Dec · Czech Ligawin 62%
Benfica
- vs Famalicao30 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 64%
- at Nacional5 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 66%
- vs OFI10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 81%
- vs SC Braga14 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 56%
- at Rio Ave20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 74%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.