League Stage - 5 · 26 November 2026, 20:00 UTC

Lyon vs Lillestrom UEFA Europa League prediction

Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon

Our model says: Lyon 2–0 Lillestrom

The model makes it 66% Lyon, 22% draw, 12% Lillestrom — fair odds of 1.52, 4.55 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Lyon 2.12, Lillestrom 0.61.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Lyon are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Lyon's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Lillestrom's from 26 Eliteserien matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 18 matches for Lyon, 6 for Lillestrom. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.

Key facts

  • Lyon are 13th on 7 points from 4 games; Lillestrom are 34th on 1 point from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
  • Lyon have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Real Sociedad.
  • Lillestrom have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Plzen.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Lyon vs Lillestrom

41%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Lyon win Draw Lillestrom win
  1. 2–015%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 3–010%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 1–19%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Lyon first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Lyon at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Lyon vs Lillestrom

Lyon

UEFA Europa League

  • D1-1away to Real Sociedad5 November 2026
  • L0-3away to 1899 Hoffenheim22 October 2026
  • W3-2Crystal Palace15 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Anderlecht16 September 2026

Lillestrom

UEFA Europa League

  • L0-1Plzen5 November 2026
  • L0-6Real Sociedad22 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sparta Praha15 October 2026
  • L1-2Torreense17 September 2026

What these results say

  • Lyon conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lyon scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Lyon had three goals or more.
  • Lillestrom did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Lillestrom conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Lyon421167-17
34Lillestrom4013210-81

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Lyon Lillestrom
0.94 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.69
0.85 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.11
2.12 Model expected goals (this match) 0.61

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lyon the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Lyon against 0.61 for Lillestrom. Lyon's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.11 for Lillestrom.

How the model reaches 66% for Lyon to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lyon to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Lyon's ratings add 13 points and Lillestrom's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 66%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage44%+7
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. Lyon's ratings54%+13
  5. Lillestrom's ratings66%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

LyonLillestrom
10Matches26
5W 2D 3LRecord14W 3D 9L
15 1.5 per gameGoals scored39 1.5 per game
9 0.9 per gameGoals conceded35 1.3 per game
4 of 10Clean sheets8 of 26
3 of 10Failed to score7 of 26
–Penalties scored3 of 4
13 1.3 per gameYellow cards43 1.7 per game
1Red cards2
4-3-3 5×Usual shape4-1-4-1 22×

Lyon at home · Lillestrom away

5Played13
4W 1D 0LRecord7W 2D 4L
12–3Goals for – against14–14
2 of 5Clean sheets6 of 13

League matches only, this season — Lyon in the Ligue 1, Lillestrom in the Eliteserien; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Lyon 10 in the Ligue 1, Lillestrom 26 in the Eliteserien.

Lyon scored 124215
Lillestrom conceded 775528

Lyon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Lillestrom have let in 8 there.

Lillestrom scored 7816512
Lyon conceded 022022

Lillestrom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Lyon have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Lyon

  • vs Monaco29 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
  • at Estac Troyes6 Dec · Ligue 1win 47%
  • vs Union St. Gilloise10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 29%
  • vs Marseille13 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%

Lillestrom

  • vs Ham-Kam30 Nov · Eliteserienwin 52%
  • at Kristiansund BK6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 42%
  • at Levski Sofia10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
  • vs Tromso13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 45%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.