Celta Vigo
vs
Union St. Gilloise
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Celta Vigo 0–1 Union St. Gilloise
The model makes it 28% Celta Vigo, 31% draw, 41% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 3.57, 3.23 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 0.92, Union St. Gilloise 1.23.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Edge to Union St. Gilloise: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Celta Vigo's rating is built from 47 La Liga matches and Union St. Gilloise's from 48 Jupiler Pro League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.
Key facts
- Celta Vigo are 28th on 0 points from 2 games; Union St. Gilloise are 12th on 4 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Celta Vigo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Alaves.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to OH Leuven.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 41% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise
Celta Vigo
- L1-2Juventus15 October 2026
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia16 September 2026
Union St. Gilloise
- D1-1Real Sociedad15 October 2026
- W3-0away to Plzen17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Celta Vigo carry a model rating of 6.89 against 7.18 for Union St. Gilloise. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.23 for Union St. Gilloise. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celta Vigo rate 0.87 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Union St. Gilloise rate 1.22 and 0.64.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.23 for Union St. Gilloise. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 0.87/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.64 for Union St. Gilloise.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celta Vigo at home · Union St. Gilloise away
League matches only, this season — Celta Vigo in the La Liga, Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Celta Vigo 9 in the La Liga, Union St. Gilloise 8 in the Jupiler Pro League.
Celta Vigo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Union St. Gilloise have let in 1 there.
Union St. Gilloise score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Celta Vigo have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Celta Vigo
- vs Levante8 Nov · La Ligawin 46%
- at Real Madrid22 Nov · La Ligawin 14%
Union St. Gilloise
- vs Genk8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 59%
- at Kortrijk22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 72%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.