Crystal Palace
vs
Real Sociedad
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Crystal Palace 1–2 Real Sociedad
The model makes it 35% Crystal Palace, 26% draw, 39% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.53, Real Sociedad 1.68.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Real Sociedad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Crystal Palace's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Real Sociedad's from 50 La Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 21 matches for Crystal Palace, 4 for Real Sociedad. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Crystal Palace are 21st on 5 points from 4 games; Real Sociedad are 20th on 5 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Crystal Palace are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to 1899 Hoffenheim.
- Real Sociedad are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Lyon.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad
Crystal Palace
UEFA Europa League
- D1-11899 Hoffenheim5 November 2026
- D2-2away to Beşiktaş22 October 2026
- L2-3away to Lyon15 October 2026
- W4-0Lech Poznan17 September 2026
Real Sociedad
UEFA Europa League
- D1-1Lyon5 November 2026
- W6-0away to Lillestrom22 October 2026
- D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise15 October 2026
- L1-2Bournemouth17 September 2026
What these results say
- Crystal Palace scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Crystal Palace failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Crystal Palace conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Sociedad scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Real Sociedad failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Real Sociedad conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 5 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and Real Sociedad
Crystal Palace
GoalsAssists
- Yeremy Pino30
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- Sergio Gómez30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Real Sociedad the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Crystal Palace against 1.68 for Real Sociedad. Crystal Palace's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/1.12 for Real Sociedad.
How the model reaches 39% for Real Sociedad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Real Sociedad to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Crystal Palace's ratings add 4 points and Real Sociedad's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level30%+1
- Crystal Palace's ratings34%+4
- Real Sociedad's ratings39%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Crystal Palace at home · Real Sociedad away
League matches only, this season — Crystal Palace in the Premier League, Real Sociedad in the La Liga; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Crystal Palace 10 in the Premier League, Real Sociedad 12 in the La Liga.
Crystal Palace score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Real Sociedad have let in 2 there.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Crystal Palace have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Crystal Palace
- vs Hull City29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Chelsea2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- at Aston Villa5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- at Jagiellonia10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 27%
Real Sociedad
- vs Sevilla29 Nov · La Ligawin 54%
- vs Real Madrid2 Dec · La Ligawin 22%
- at Villarreal6 Dec · La Ligawin 26%
- vs Torreense10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 74%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.