Sunderland
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Sunderland 2–1 Dinamo Zagreb
The model makes it 43% Sunderland, 26% draw, 31% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.70, Dinamo Zagreb 1.38.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Sunderland's rating is built from 45 Premier League matches and Dinamo Zagreb's from 45 Croatian HNL matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 656 matches.
Key facts
- Sunderland are 9th on 6 points from 2 games; Dinamo Zagreb are 14th on 4 points from 2 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Sunderland have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Bournemouth.
- Dinamo Zagreb have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win away to NK Slaven Belupo.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sunderland at 43% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb
Sunderland
- W2-1away to Torreense15 October 2026
- W1-0AZ Alkmaar16 September 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- W1-0Anderlecht15 October 2026
- D0-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 6 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sunderland carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.81 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Sunderland and 1.38 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sunderland rate 0.84 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 1.10 and 1.22.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sunderland the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sunderland against 1.38 for Dinamo Zagreb. Sunderland's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.22 for Dinamo Zagreb.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sunderland at home · Dinamo Zagreb away
League matches only, this season — Sunderland in the Premier League, Dinamo Zagreb in the HNL. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Sunderland 7 in the Premier League, Dinamo Zagreb 9 in the HNL.
Sunderland score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Dinamo Zagreb have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Sunderland
- vs Chelsea8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Aston Villa21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
Dinamo Zagreb
- at NK Varazdin7 Nov · HNLwin 42%
- vs Istra 196121 Nov · HNLwin 71%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.