Celta Vigo
vs
Bournemouth
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Celta Vigo 0–1 Bournemouth
The model makes it 27% Celta Vigo, 28% draw, 45% Bournemouth — fair odds of 3.70, 3.57 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.06, Bournemouth 1.53.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
One-sided: Bournemouth are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Celta Vigo's rating is built from 50 La Liga matches and Bournemouth's from 48 Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 18 matches for Celta Vigo, 4 for Bournemouth. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Celta Vigo are 27th on 3 points from 4 games; Bournemouth are 2nd on 12 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Celta Vigo have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Union St. Gilloise.
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Sparta Praha.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celta Vigo vs Bournemouth
Has the model earned this number?
Bournemouth at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Bournemouth
Celta Vigo
UEFA Europa League
- L1-2Union St. Gilloise5 November 2026
- W2-1away to Celtic22 October 2026
- L1-2Juventus15 October 2026
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia16 September 2026
Bournemouth
UEFA Europa League
- W3-1away to Sparta Praha5 November 2026
- W3-0AC Milan22 October 2026
- W3-0Sturm Graz15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Real Sociedad17 September 2026
What these results say
- Celta Vigo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Celta Vigo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Celta Vigo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Bournemouth won every one of these 4 matches.
- Bournemouth scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Bournemouth had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Bournemouth
Celta Vigo
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- Rayan30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Celta Vigo against 1.53 for Bournemouth. Celta Vigo's attack/defence rating is 0.77/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.89 for Bournemouth.
How the model reaches 45% for Bournemouth to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bournemouth to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Celta Vigo's ratings add 7 points and Bournemouth's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Celta Vigo's ratings36%+7
- Bournemouth's ratings45%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Celta Vigo at home · Bournemouth away
League matches only, this season — Celta Vigo in the La Liga, Bournemouth in the Premier League; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Celta Vigo 12 in the La Liga, Bournemouth 10 in the Premier League.
Celta Vigo score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Bournemouth have let in 3 there.
Bournemouth score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Celta Vigo have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Celta Vigo
- vs Villarreal29 Nov · La Ligawin 32%
- at Barcelona6 Dec · La Ligawin 11%
- at Marseille10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 22%
- at Espanyol13 Dec · La Ligawin 29%
Bournemouth
- at Fulham29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Brighton2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Hull City5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- vs Plzen10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.