Sunderland
vs
Jagiellonia
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Sunderland 1–0 Jagiellonia
The model makes it 48% Sunderland, 29% draw, 23% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.48, Jagiellonia 0.88.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Sunderland: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Sunderland's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Jagiellonia's from 47 Ekstraklasa matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 4 matches for Sunderland, 18 for Jagiellonia. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Sunderland are 11th on 7 points from 4 games; Jagiellonia are 29th on 3 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Sunderland have won 2 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Dinamo Zagreb.
- Jagiellonia have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Levski Sofia.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sunderland vs Jagiellonia
Has the model earned this number?
Sunderland at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sunderland vs Jagiellonia
Sunderland
UEFA Europa League
- L0-2Dinamo Zagreb5 November 2026
- D1-1away to Lech Poznan22 October 2026
- W2-1away to Torreense15 October 2026
- W1-0AZ Alkmaar16 September 2026
Jagiellonia
UEFA Europa League
- L0-1away to Levski Sofia5 November 2026
- L0-3Anderlecht22 October 2026
- W3-1Ararat-Armenia15 October 2026
- L1-2away to Olympiakos Piraeus16 September 2026
What these results say
- Sunderland scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sunderland conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sunderland had two goals or fewer.
- Jagiellonia conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Jagiellonia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Jagiellonia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sunderland the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sunderland against 0.88 for Jagiellonia. Sunderland's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.12 for Jagiellonia.
How the model reaches 48% for Sunderland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sunderland to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Sunderland's ratings add 3 points and Jagiellonia's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level41%−3
- Sunderland's ratings44%+3
- Jagiellonia's ratings48%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Sunderland's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Jagiellonia's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sunderland at home · Jagiellonia away
League matches only, this season — Sunderland in the Premier League, Jagiellonia in the Ekstraklasa; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Sunderland 10 in the Premier League, Jagiellonia 13 in the Ekstraklasa.
Sunderland score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Jagiellonia have let in 1 there.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Sunderland have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sunderland
- vs Tottenham29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Liverpool2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- at Newcastle6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at AC Milan10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 15%
Jagiellonia
- vs Radomiak Radom29 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 55%
- at Piast Gliwice6 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Crystal Palace10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
- at Korona Kielce12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.