Ferencvarosi TC
vs
Celje
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Ferencvarosi TC 2–0 Celje
The model makes it 58% Ferencvarosi TC, 24% draw, 18% Celje — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Ferencvarosi TC 2.03, Celje 0.89.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Ferencvarosi TC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Ferencvarosi TC's rating is built from 45 Hungarian NB I matches and Celje's from 48 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 28 matches for Ferencvarosi TC, 26 for Celje. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Ferencvarosi TC are 3rd on 12 points from 4 games; Celje are 25th on 4 points from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in their last 4 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to AC Milan.
- Celje have won 1 of their last 4 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Sturm Graz.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ferencvarosi TC vs Celje
Has the model earned this number?
Ferencvarosi TC at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs Celje
Ferencvarosi TC
UEFA Europa League
- W2-0away to AC Milan5 November 2026
- W4-1Torreense22 October 2026
- W2-1Plzen15 October 2026
- W3-1away to Celtic17 September 2026
Celje
UEFA Europa League
- W3-2away to Sturm Graz5 November 2026
- D2-2Red Bull Salzburg22 October 2026
- L0-3Omonia Nicosia15 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bayer Leverkusen16 September 2026
What these results say
- Ferencvarosi TC won every one of these 4 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Ferencvarosi TC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Celje conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Celje failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Celje had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 12 |
| 25 | Celje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and Celje
Ferencvarosi TC
GoalsAssists
- L. Joseph41
- K. Zachariassen34
- B. Yusuf22
Celje
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC against 0.89 for Celje. Ferencvarosi TC's attack/defence rating is 0.84/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.17 for Celje.
How the model reaches 58% for Ferencvarosi TC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Ferencvarosi TC to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Ferencvarosi TC's ratings add 7 points and Celje's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Ferencvarosi TC's ratings50%+7
- Celje's ratings58%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Ferencvarosi TC's most recent league matches and Celje's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Ferencvarosi TC at home · Celje away
League matches only, this season — Ferencvarosi TC in the NB I, Celje in the 1. SNL; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Ferencvarosi TC 12 in the NB I, Celje 14 in the 1. SNL.
Ferencvarosi TC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Celje have let in 1 there.
Celje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Ferencvarosi TC have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ferencvarosi TC
- vs Zalaegerszegi TE29 Nov · NB Iwin 62%
- vs Budapest Honved3 Dec · NB Iwin 63%
- at Budapest Honved6 Dec · NB Iwin 54%
- at Lech Poznan10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 22%
Celje
- at Koper28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 31%
- vs Radomlje2 Dec · 1. SNLwin 76%
- vs Bravo5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 58%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.