Union St. Gilloise
vs
Lech Poznan
UEFA Europa League prediction
Our model says: Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Lech Poznan
The model makes it 63% Union St. Gilloise, 21% draw, 16% Lech Poznan — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 2.34, Lech Poznan 0.92.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Union St. Gilloise are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Union St. Gilloise's rating is built from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches and Lech Poznan's from 47 Ekstraklasa matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. In European competition both ratings are rescaled to the strength of their league and adjusted by their European results over this season and last: 14 matches for Union St. Gilloise, 22 for Lech Poznan. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Union St. Gilloise are 4th on 10 points from 4 games; Lech Poznan are 35th on 1 point from 4 games — UEFA Europa League.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Celta Vigo.
- Lech Poznan have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Benfica.
More Europa League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union St. Gilloise vs Lech Poznan
Has the model earned this number?
Union St. Gilloise at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Lech Poznan
Union St. Gilloise
UEFA Europa League
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo5 November 2026
- W4-0Hapoel Beer Sheva22 October 2026
- D1-1Real Sociedad15 October 2026
- W3-0away to Plzen17 September 2026
Lech Poznan
UEFA Europa League
- L1-3away to Benfica5 November 2026
- D1-1Sunderland22 October 2026
- L0-4Bayer Leverkusen15 October 2026
- L0-4away to Crystal Palace17 September 2026
What these results say
- Union St. Gilloise went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Lech Poznan did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Lech Poznan conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Lech Poznan had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 10 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 0.92 for Lech Poznan. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 1.2/0.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/1.01 for Lech Poznan.
How the model reaches 63% for Union St. Gilloise to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Union St. Gilloise to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Union St. Gilloise's ratings add 8 points and Lech Poznan's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Union St. Gilloise's ratings52%+8
- Lech Poznan's ratings63%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Union St. Gilloise's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Lech Poznan's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Union St. Gilloise at home · Lech Poznan away
League matches only, this season — Union St. Gilloise in the Jupiler Pro League, Lech Poznan in the Ekstraklasa; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Union St. Gilloise 11 in the Jupiler Pro League, Lech Poznan 13 in the Ekstraklasa.
Union St. Gilloise score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Lech Poznan have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Union St. Gilloise
- vs Gent29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 50%
- at Lyon10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 41%
- at KV Mechelen13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 58%
- vs Club Brugge KV20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 41%
Lech Poznan
- vs Pogon Szczecin29 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 62%
- at Motor Lublin5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 53%
- vs Ferencvarosi TC10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 54%
- at Cracovia Krakow12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 56%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.